It’s been a horrible run for oil and oil stocks. But, dare I say it; there are finally some tangible signals of a workable long-term bottom forming in oil – and a further longer-term bull market in oil that’s brewing with it.
Look, there’s no one left who is ready to believe that oil can ever rally substantially again. But I know it must – we cannot get oil from all of the newest, most important sources of oil in the deep oceans and oil sands, as well as from most shale resources here in the U.S. for $30 a barrel.
We’ve been waiting for this over supplied market to ‘clear’ and waiting for oil companies to stop producing full-scale. But that has been a much longer process than just about anyone imagined it could be, including me.
Basic economics are unassailable, however and must assert themselves to destroy production and lift oil prices back to a reasonable, and sustainable level.
The question, for the past year, has been: When?
Here are some signs that we’re further along than even the market is ready to admit:
Fundamentally, oil production in the U.S. is beginning to drop, with quarterly oil company reports pointing to a much deeper slackening of barrels later in the year – Shell, for example, reported on Thursday a very deep drop in profits, which wasn’t surprising. What surprised was their admission of drying up reserves, a consequence of slashed capex that will reverberate…