• 4 minutes What will the future hold for nations dependent on high oil prices.
  • 7 minutes Paris Is Burning Over Climate Change Taxes -- Is America Next?
  • 12 minutes OPEC Cuts Deep to Save Cartel
  • 15 minutes Venezuela continues to sink in misery
  • 1 hour End of EV Subsidies?
  • 2 hours Maersk's COO statment.
  • 4 hours Citi cuts Apple's price target
  • 6 mins Japan Effectively Bans China’s Huawei, ZTE From Government Contracts, Joining U.S
  • 5 hours Asian stocks down
  • 2 hours USGS Announces Largest Continuous Oil Assessment in Texas and New Mexico
  • 9 hours China Builds LNG Icebreaker
  • 2 hours GOODBYE FOREIGN OIL DEPENDENCE!!
  • 36 mins Oil prices may go up, but will be below $70 a barrel in FY19: Hindustan Petroleum Chairman
  • 11 hours EPA To Roll Back Carbon Rule On New Coal Plants
  • 10 hours Price Decline in Chinese Solar Panels
  • 9 hours Trump accuses Google Of Hiding 'Fair Media' Coverage of him
Dan Dicker

Dan Dicker

Dan Dicker is a 25 year veteran of the New York Mercantile Exchange where he traded crude oil, natural gas, unleaded gasoline and heating oil…

More Info

U.S. Shale’s Breakeven Myth

Permian

Most oil analysts have one goal in mind, and it’s not to be right about predicting the future prices of oil. It’s about trying especially hard not to be wrong.

The difference is important. Most analysts, including the IEA and EIA, cannot make any forecast that can be recalled months later to make them look foolish. The safest prediction you can make is always to see not much change at all, whether you see oil at $25 a barrel or $125 a barrel.

If something dramatic changes, the worst you can be accused of is not seeing what virtually everyone else has missed too – and you keep your reputation and your job.

I don’t have those restrictions, which is why you’ll get what seems like wilder predictions from me, including my continued outlook for $100 a barrel oil in 2018.

This week, we have another indication that the ‘common wisdom’ in oil is not holding up and something entirely different from what the majority of analysts are predicting is going to happen.

This interesting piece in the Wall Street Journal outlines how most of the supermajors – Exxon, Shell, Chevron and BP – have been struggling to break even in a $50 oil environment and have been pulling free cash in order to continue to pay dividends.

This runs entirely counter to the ‘common wisdom’ on the street – that the ‘new normal’ of efficiencies and cost slashing in US E+P’s has made oil profitable…

To read the full article

Please sign up and become a premium OilPrice.com member to gain access to read the full article.

RegisterLogin

Trending Discussions




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News
-->