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Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana is a writer for the U.S.-based Divergente LLC consulting firm with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as iNVEZZ and…

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U.S. Shale Output Rises As OPEC Production Falls To 6-Month Low

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OPEC’s crude oil production dropped to a six-month low in November, while U.S. and other non-OPEC supply has grown stronger than initially expected this year, which prompted the cartel to revise up on Wednesday its estimates for non-OPEC supply growth in 2018.

OPEC’s crude oil production fell by 133,500 bpd from October to stand at 32.448 million bpd in November, OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report showed on Wednesday. This was the lowest production the cartel has reported in six months.

The largest increase among the members came from Nigeria, whose production in November jumped by 95,800 bpd from October to 1.790 million bpd, according to OPEC’s secondary sources. Angola, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and the UAE saw the largest declines in production.

The final OPEC monthly report for this year focused on the 2017 highlights and expectations for 2018. In both overviews, the predominant theme was the U.S. shale supply growth that was higher than any initial expectations.

“Non-OPEC oil supply growth 2017 performed well above initial market expectations to now stand at 0.81 mb/d. Higher-than-expected supply growth in the US, Canada and Kazakhstan have been the key contributors to the upward revisions, particularly US tight oil. As a result, US oil output is now expected to grow at 0.61 mb/d this year,” OPEC said.

The expected non-OPEC oil supply growth for 2017 is an upward revision of 150,000 barrels per day from the previous report.

Improved well efficiency and increased investment in U.S. tight oil prompted OPEC to expect the momentum to continue in 2018. Higher production from sanctioned oil sands projects in Canada will also add to increased non-OPEC supply next year. Related: Cyberattacks: The Biggest Threat To OPEC

“As a result, non-OPEC supply is expected to grow by 0.99 mb/d in 2018. The forecast is associated with considerable uncertainties, particularly regarding US tight oil developments,” OPEC said.

For 2018, OPEC revised up its forecast for non-OPEC supply growth by 120,000 barrels per day.

In its World Oil Outlook 2017 published in November, OPEC admitted that higher oil prices, robust oil demand growth, and higher upstream activity will lead to faster-than-previously-expected growth in U.S. shale production until 2022.

“Combined with continued efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC to support oil market stability, this should lead to a further reduction in excess global inventories, arriving at a balanced market by late 2018,” the cartel said today.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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  • John Brown on December 13 2017 said:
    LOL! This is such a JOKE. OPEC and Russia have idled huge amounts of oil production capacity most this year, and we still have a glut of oil sloshing around the world. The idled capacity and production reductions by OPEC and Russia have caused the price to go rise, even though it hasn't ended the glut of oil. Meanwhile the over $50 a barrel has increased U.S. shale oil production far more than anyone expected. The cost to produce continues to drop in the USA, and the incentive to produce more it plus $55 a barrel is huge. The U.S. industry has shown with New technology it will continue to lower the price of production while increasing it at record levels, and getting it to market far faster than anyone expected. Time to market is now measured in months not years.
    How OPEC/Russia think spurring growth in U.S. shale oil production is going to lower the glut, even if they stick to their cuts is hard to understand. You can bet that the longer the price states $55 to $60 for WTI, the more U.S. production will exceed these estimates by a large margin.
    With Renewables getting cheaper to produce and inching up their percentage of total energy supplies its great of OPEC/Russia to idle their production capacity and let the USA and Canada sell their oil reserves at these inflated prices while they sit on theirs until nobody needs the oil anymore.
    I'm hoping that this silly collusion in the industry to sustain prices or raise them while the glut of oil keeps sloshing around continues to keep prices around $60 at least until mid year 2018. That will guarantee that the U.S. industry and production will continue to boom.
  • Dick Perry on December 13 2017 said:
    2.5 million bbls total draw. I like how the EIA upped its gasoline numbers very cleaver.
  • Ricardo Montobahn on December 13 2017 said:
    Just about the same as last week, 2.5 million bbls total draw. I like how it stays about the same, good for market stability. Now if there were a spike of + or - 10 million barrels like last year that could cause some havoc. Good to see the EIA got their arithmetic fixed.

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