The CORRECTION: We’ve all awaited it and I’ve been loath to call it, but too many factors have rolled in at once and its time has come. Oil will show the way on the extent of this correction, but my guess it will be relatively shallow, but take a rather long time. Batten down the hatches.
Too many negatives have hit the markets at one time – and finally, the markets can no longer ignore them all and continue to roll forward. The latest round of sanctions against Russia will slow Russian oil production, weaken the global economy and certainly inspire Russian retaliation in Eastern Europe. The new ‘Cold War’ is beginning and will not be fought through an arms race, but rather by jabbing economic daggers from West to East and vice versa.
Add that dangerous concept to two more: Argentina’s decision to default and rising interest rates.
While most have been nonplussed by the prospect of an Argentinian default, the long-term results could be quite disastrous for global credit markets. It is not just the ‘anti-law’ stance that the Argentinian government has taken to the rulings by a US judge, US Supreme Court and International arbitrator, offering only an exchange of bonds to sovereign bond holdouts in a last ditch effort to avoid this default. By, in essence, refusing to recognize these legal rulings, a new era for all sovereign debt funding may…