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Dan Dicker

Dan Dicker

Dan Dicker is a 25 year veteran of the New York Mercantile Exchange where he traded crude oil, natural gas, unleaded gasoline and heating oil…

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The Most Important Energy Trend in 2014

We’re getting to the end of the year and it’s nearing time for my ‘best stock’ selections for 2014, so you might think that the next column naming these stocks would be the one to read.  It’s not – my track record on picking stocks that will perform for a 12-month period isn’t so great.  However, my analysis of what drives those choices is -- in fact, very good indeed.  And that’s why THIS column is the one to read.  

So, what are the most important trends in energy going into 2014?  Space and time are limited, so let me talk about the most important one I see: The bifurcated market appearing around crude oil here in the US as opposed to the rest of the globe.  

Here in the United States, much ink and hype has been devoted to the rapid rise in production from oil shale, and much of the money to be made in oil stocks was directly related to this trend in 2013 – witness Bakken stocks like Continental (CLR) or Eagle Ford winners like EOG Resources (EOG) or the Permian parabolic move of someone like Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) - The question for next year is whether that rate of growth can possibly be sustained and whether these stocks have their best days ahead or behind them.  Without discussing specific stocks (let’s leave something for next week), let’s point out the three most important factors to consider:  The price of domestic crude in the coming year,…

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