Despite the slowing growth rate across the U.S. shale patch, oil production in Texas will rise in nearly every month in 2020, thanks to sufficient fracking activity in the state home of the Permian basin, energy research and business intelligence company Rystad Energy said in a new analysis this week.
Statewide crude oil production in Texas grew to an estimated 5.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in December 2019, according to Rystad Energy.
The latest available monthly production data for Texas from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that Texas’ field production of crude oil stood at 5.329 million bpd in November 2019—an all-time high production record.
Currently, the statewide oil production in Texas is reported at just 4.5 million bpd for December, but Rystad Energy’s assessment of reporting delays and activity trends point to a still unreported additional production of around 900,000 bpd.
“We see a monthly addition of 70,000 bpd in December in Texas. A flat oil production would be the most conservative scenario,” Rystad Energy’s Senior Shale Analyst Alexandre Ramos-Peon said in a statement, noting that the Eagle Ford area contributed most to the increase in the last month of 2019.
For this year, the pace of oil production growth will slow down in Texas, in lockstep with the slowdown in output growth across the U.S. shale patch.
Despite the expected slower pace of growth, Rystad Energy sees production growth in almost every month in 2020, as statewide fracking activity stays at levels enough to achieve growth.
In the first quarter, however, Texas is not expected to see material growth in oil production, because either fracking activity or average well productivity would need to rise, and those two events are unlikely to occur in Q1 in the current environment, according to Rystad Energy.
However, “the present activity remains above the balancing point needed to maintain production,” the analysts said.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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