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Jim Hyerczyk

Jim Hyerczyk

Fundamental and technical analyst with 30 years experience.

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Sellers Take Control Of Oil Markets

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September West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Analysis

September West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are expected to close lower for the week. The market is being pressured by evidence of an ongoing fuel glut despite efforts led by OPEC to tighten the market by curtailing production.

Traders are reacting to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report from the week-ending June 2 which showed a surprise build in commercial crude oil stocks to 513.2 million barrels. Inventories in gasoline and distillates were also up, despite the start of the peak demand summer season.

Adding to the bearishness from the EIA report is the news that refined product inventories are now back above 2016 levels and well-above their five-year average range.

Asian markets are also oversupplied, with traders continuing to put excess crude into floating storage, a key indicator for a glut. Shipping data in Thompson Reuters Eikon shows at least 25 supertankers currently sitting in the Strait of Malacca and the Singapore Strait, holding unsold fuel.

Technical Analysis

(Click to enlarge)

The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. If the downside momentum continues then the selling could extend into the main bottom at $44.76. If sellers take out this bottom then we could see an eventual test of the next main bottom at $42.18.

The main trend will turn up on a trade through the main top at $52.38.

The main range is…

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