• 5 hours UK On Track To Approve Construction of “Mini” Nuclear Reactors
  • 9 hours LNG Glut To Continue Into 2020s, IEA Says
  • 11 hours Oil Nears $52 With Record OPEC Deal Compliance
  • 14 hours Saudi Aramco CEO Affirms IPO On Track For H2 2018
  • 16 hours Canadia Ltd. Returns To Sudan For First Time Since Oil Price Crash
  • 17 hours Syrian Rebel Group Takes Over Oil Field From IS
  • 3 days PDVSA Booted From Caribbean Terminal Over Unpaid Bills
  • 3 days Russia Warns Ukraine Against Recovering Oil Off The Coast Of Crimea
  • 3 days Syrian Rebels Relinquish Control Of Major Gas Field
  • 3 days Schlumberger Warns Of Moderating Investment In North America
  • 3 days Oil Prices Set For Weekly Loss As Profit Taking Trumps Mideast Tensions
  • 3 days Energy Regulators Look To Guard Grid From Cyberattacks
  • 4 days Mexico Says OPEC Has Not Approached It For Deal Extension
  • 4 days New Video Game Targets Oil Infrastructure
  • 4 days Shell Restarts Bonny Light Exports
  • 4 days Russia’s Rosneft To Take Majority In Kurdish Oil Pipeline
  • 4 days Iraq Struggles To Replace Damaged Kirkuk Equipment As Output Falls
  • 4 days British Utility Companies Brace For Major Reforms
  • 4 days Montenegro A ‘Sweet Spot’ Of Untapped Oil, Gas In The Adriatic
  • 4 days Rosneft CEO: Rising U.S. Shale A Downside Risk To Oil Prices
  • 4 days Brazil Could Invite More Bids For Unsold Pre-Salt Oil Blocks
  • 5 days OPEC/Non-OPEC Seek Consensus On Deal Before Nov Summit
  • 5 days London Stock Exchange Boss Defends Push To Win Aramco IPO
  • 5 days Rosneft Signs $400M Deal With Kurdistan
  • 5 days Kinder Morgan Warns About Trans Mountain Delays
  • 5 days India, China, U.S., Complain Of Venezuelan Crude Oil Quality Issues
  • 5 days Kurdish Kirkuk-Ceyhan Crude Oil Flows Plunge To 225,000 Bpd
  • 5 days Russia, Saudis Team Up To Boost Fracking Tech
  • 6 days Conflicting News Spurs Doubt On Aramco IPO
  • 6 days Exxon Starts Production At New Refinery In Texas
  • 6 days Iraq Asks BP To Redevelop Kirkuk Oil Fields
  • 6 days Oil Prices Rise After U.S. API Reports Strong Crude Inventory Draw
  • 6 days Oil Gains Spur Growth In Canada’s Oil Cities
  • 7 days China To Take 5% Of Rosneft’s Output In New Deal
  • 7 days UAE Oil Giant Seeks Partnership For Possible IPO
  • 7 days Planting Trees Could Cut Emissions As Much As Quitting Oil
  • 7 days VW Fails To Secure Critical Commodity For EVs
  • 7 days Enbridge Pipeline Expansion Finally Approved
  • 7 days Iraqi Forces Seize Control Of North Oil Co Fields In Kirkuk
  • 7 days OPEC Oil Deal Compliance Falls To 86%
Alt Text

Oil Fundamentals Overturn Geopolitical Risk

Geopolitical risk from Iraq and…

Alt Text

Oil Shows Weakness, But Don’t Expect A Plunge

Oil prices remained firm this…

Alt Text

A New Oil Crisis Is Developing In The Middle East

As Iraqi-Kurds prepare to fight…

Nick Cunningham

Nick Cunningham

Nick Cunningham is a freelance writer on oil and gas, renewable energy, climate change, energy policy and geopolitics. He is based in Pittsburgh, PA.

More Info

Record High Oil Inventories Crush Hopes For $70 Oil


Another week brings yet more signs that the highly-anticipated oil market “balance” will not occur in the immediate future. Heading into 2017, there was a broad consensus that global oil production would fall below demand in the first half of the year, a deficit that would help bring down inventories and lead to relative balance between supply and demand. Mid-2017 seemed to be the timeframe that everyone was looking at for this development to occur.

But there are growing signs that the oil market won’t reach balance by then, and perhaps not this year at all. “We don’t really see a real balancing of the market coming until much much later,” Richard Gorry of JBC Energy Asia told CNBC in an interview. “Right now the oil market is oversupplied by about 500,000 barrels per day in the first quarter. So to see inventories continue to go up is absolutely of no surprise to us.”

The EIA reported yet another massive build in crude oil inventories last week. Crude stocks surged by 9.5 million barrels for the week ending in February 10, taking total stocks up to 518 million barrels. That is a new record high, blowing past the record set last year at 512 million barrels. Oil inventories are higher than at any point since data collection began, dating back to the early 1980s.

Oil inventories have climbed sharply this year, but in recent weeks some investors took solace in the fact that gasoline stocks had tightened a bit even as crude inventories rose, hoping that was a sign of robust demand. Not so for last week – gasoline stocks rose by nearly 3 million barrels, deflating hopes that consumers would help bring down excess supplies. Related: Total Going On The Offensive

(Click to enlarge)

Rising inventories backs up the argument by JBC Energy Asia that the market is still oversupplied. That stands in sharp contrast with the IEA’s projection that the market will be in a supply deficit on the order of 600,000 bpd in the first six months of 2017, assuming OPEC compliance.

On the OPEC front, Reuters reports that the cartel is preparing to extend the production cut deal beyond the June expiration date if global inventories fail to fall sufficiently. The comments were initially taken as a bullish sign on February 16, with oil prices jumping on the news. But the good mood didn’t last – WTI and Brent quickly gave up their gains. "We were up at first on word OPEC may extend output deal, but there is so much supply in the market that their rhetorical prowess is on the wane," John Kilduff, founding partner of Again Capital, told CNBC. Indeed, the fact that OPEC now deems it necessary to extend the cuts for another six months is a bearish signal, not a bullish one. If the oil market was actually on the mend they would declare “mission accomplished” at their June meeting and let the deal expire.

To be sure, an extension of the cuts would certainly help accelerate the adjustment by keeping some 1 million barrels per day of supply off of the market for longer. But it is also not a vote of confidence in the current trajectory of the market. Moreover, the longer the deal wears on, the more likely members are going to be tempted to cheat. On top of that U.S. output is rising quicker than expected, and countries like Libya and Nigeria are undermining the effectiveness of the deal by bringing production back online. Related: Are Oil Markets Ignoring Demand?

In fact, Libyan officials just said that output has climbed above 700,000 bpd and rising. Libya is targeting 1.2 mb/d by August – a much more substantial increase than previously expected and on a much faster timeline. And by March 2018 they hope to have output up to 1.7 mb/d. Projections like these should be taken with a large grain of salt, but if Libya is successful it will add as much new supply as all of OPEC is currently cutting.

As a result, the OPEC deal might not be enough to push oil prices up any higher. But Richard Gorry of JBC Energy Asia said that those hoping for higher oil prices on the deal were misguided from the start. “I don’t think that [OPEC’s] goal was to push the oil price up to $70 or something in that range. They were really trying to protect the oil price on the downside…I think they knew that the market wouldn’t be rebalanced, but they were making sure that the producers were protected on the downside,” Gory said on CNBC. “Don’t expect $70 oil because that was not the objective.”

By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:

Back to homepage

Leave a comment
  • Kr55 on February 16 2017 said:
    Such rapid fire bearish articles. I hope you haven't bet anything you can't afford to lose on oil tanking.

    One hint on inventories though, it's just oil moving from one place to another as the contango flattens. That's the main reason oil prices aren't dropping because of the builds in 1 on-land place on earth. The guys with the big money know it's old oil just relocating because many areas are no longer economical to store.
  • Bud on February 17 2017 said:
    According to Libya herald reporting oil production was down somewhat this month. Also, their NOC has stated that they are not receiving enough cash from the central bank to perform necessary maintenance and expand production. Curious that people think Libya can do in a day without money what would take the Permian a year with hundreds of billions in spending.
  • John Brown on February 17 2017 said:
    So there is a glut of oil sloshing around the market and increasing by 500,000 barrels a day. OPEC countries are cheating, and the daily glut isn't increasing as much because Saudi Arabia is reducing production below its share. Meanwhile the USA is showing that its price point as been lowered dramatically and at $50 a barrel oil it can start increasing production, which doesn't take years to come to market, but months.
    There is no reason in the world at this moment for the price of a barrel of oil to be more than $30, and yet the entire oil industry and financial industry involved in oil are doing all they can to ignore supply and demand and push the price higher. That's not collusion its price fixing, but call it what you want the glut is growing. Next we'll see folks talking about summer driving as reason to push prices higher, but that's not going to be enough to BALANCE the glut, and summer driving or no the longer prices are help above market the bigger the glut will grow.
  • Amvet on February 20 2017 said:
    So inventory is up, so what?
    We import about 6 million bbl per day.
    Did an extra tanker unload?

Leave a comment

Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News