OPEC has raised significantly its long-term oil demand outlook and now expects global oil demand at around 116 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2045, up by 6 million bpd compared to the previous assessment from last year, as energy consumption continues to grow and will need all forms of energy.
In the annual World Oil Outlook released on Monday, OPEC expects global oil demand to increase by more than 16 million bpd between 2022 and 2045, rising from 99.6 million bpd in 2022 to 116 million bpd in 2045.
By 2028, global oil demand is set to reach 110.2 million bpd, up by 10.6 million bpd compared to 2022, with non-OECD oil demand expected to increase by 10.1 million bpd, reaching 63.7 million bpd by 2028.
India will be the driver of growth through 2045, expected to add 6.6 million bpd to oil demand over the forecast period. Other Asia’s oil demand is set to increase by 4.6 million bpd, China’s by 4 million bpd, Africa’s by 3.8 million bpd, and the Middle East’s by 3.6 million bpd, OPEC said.
“In this year’s WOO, global energy demand is seen expanding by 23% in the period to 2045, or on average by around 3 million barrels of oil equivalent a day every year,” OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais wrote in a foreword to the report.
“Recent developments have led the OPEC team to reassess just what each energy can deliver, with a focus on pragmatic and realistic options and solutions. In this regard, our Reference Case sees oil demand reaching 116 million barrels a day (mb/d) by 2045, around 6 mb/d higher than in the WOO 2022, and with the potential to be even higher,” Al Ghais said.
The much higher demand forecast from OPEC for the next two decades is in stark contrast with the International Energy Agency (IEA), which sees fossil fuels peaking this decade.
Last month, OPEC rebuked the IEA for claiming that oil and gas demand would peak this decade and for calling the “beginning of the end of fossil fuels.”
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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It also smashes to smithereens both the IEA’s and Rystad Energy’s projections of peak oil demand being reached by 2030 and 2027 respectively.
In its annual World Oil Outlook (WOO) released on Monday, OPEC expects global oil demand to rise from 99.6 mbd in 2022 to 110.2 mbd by 2028, up by 10.6 mbd with non-OECD oil demand expected to increase by 10.1 mbd, reaching 63.7 mbd by 2028.
As expected, India and China will lead the global demand growth adding 6.6 mbd and 4.0 mbd respectively between now and 2045.
Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
International Oil Economist
Global Energy Expert