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Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as iNVEZZ and SeeNews. 

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JPMorgan: Russia Can Maintain Oil Production At Pre-War Levels

  • JPMorgan believes Russia will be able to maintain its oil production at pre-war levels of 10.8 million barrels per day.
  • The bank believes Russia’s oil product exports will likely drop by 300,000 bpd due to the EU embargo on imports of Russian fuels.
  • Growing demand from both India and China will help to maintain Russian oil production, but it is unlikely to return to pre-Covid levels.

Russia will likely manage to keep its oil production around the levels from before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, thanks to solid demand for Russia’s crude oil in India and China, JPMorgan said on Thursday.

“We believe Russia will be able to maintain its oil production at pre-war levels of 10.8 mbd (million barrels a day) but will have difficulties getting back to peak pre-COVID volumes of 11.3 mbd,” Reuters quoted the Wall Street bank as saying.  

Still, Russia could struggle to divert part of its oil product exports away from Europe, after the EU embargo on imports of Russian fuels came into effect on February 5, according to JPMorgan.

Seaborne oil product shipments from Russia are set to decline by around 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) to “lows last seen in May 2022,” the bank said.

Before the embargo, Europe was a key destination for Russia’s fuel exports and took in more than 600,000 bpd of Russian oil products.

This month, Russia is voluntarily cutting its oil production by 500,000 bpd as a result of the Western sanctions and the price cap on Russian crude oil.  

The Russian production cut could be “a sign that Moscow may be struggling to place all of its barrels,” or “may be an attempt to shore up oil prices,” the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its Oil Market Report for February. 

The attempt at an oil-price boost has failed so far—prices have been pressured in recent weeks by signs that the Fed could raise interest rates to a higher endpoint and hold them there for longer to fight sticky inflation. 

Russian crude oil and petroleum product exports held strong in February, with oil producers managing to export 7.32 million bpd of crude oil and oil products in February, according to Kpler data.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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  • Mamdouh Salameh on March 02 2023 said:
    If Russia managed to export on average 7.8 million barrels a day (mbd) of crude and petroleum products in 2022 and even raised its exports in January 2023 to 8.2 mbd, a 2.5% higher that its pre-Ukraine level of 8.0 mbd, then it is obvious that not only it can maintain its production but it can also raise it to 11.3 mbd.in 2023.

    Russia is also projected to add 1.5 mbd to its production from the Vostok project in the Arctic by 2026/27.

    Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
    International Oil Economist
    Global Energy Expert

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