The news in the energy markets is very intense indeed – although for an oil stock investor, nothing seems to matter much – but more on that later. First, the news.
There was a turnover in the U.S. Secretary of State. Former Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson is out, and CIA chief Mike Pompeo is in. Tillerson was no big fan of the Iran nuclear deal, but Pompeo is even less committed to it, calling the 2015 agreement ‘a disaster’. The deal is set to be “reviewed” by the Trump administration on May 12th.
If that review results in the tearing up of the Iran agreement, it would force the reapplication of sanctions and would likely change the future oil output from Iran. Even more importantly, sanctions could alter the Iranian commitment to the Saudi-led OPEC production deal. Besides the Russians, the Iranians have been the most difficult cartel member to keep in the fold of OPEC production guidelines.
So, the move of Tillerson out of the State Department could mean a lot for global oil supplies.
Here in the U.S. we recently finished with CeraWeek, and heard some interesting points of view from various oil voices. To me, the most interesting was Mark Papa’s opinion that the EIA is being overly enthusiastic in their current projections for increased U.S. shale oil production.
Besides Harold Hamm of Continental Resources, Papa is the last king of shale left in the game. But despite his stellar reputation for predicting…