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Michael Kern

Michael Kern

Michael Kern is a newswriter and editor at Safehaven.com and Oilprice.com, 

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IEA: Half Of All Cars Sold In Top Markets Will Be Electric By 2030

  • Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, the head of the IEA made some bold statements regarding electric vehicles.
  • According to Fatih Birol, every second car sold in China, Europe, and the United States in 2030 will be an electric car.
  • The IEA has warned of bottlenecks in battery supply chains, but clearly believes demand will continue to climb

Every other car sold in 2030 in the three largest EV markets – China, Europe, and the United States – will be an electric vehicle, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday.

In 2030, every second car sold in Europe, the US, and China, the three largest car markets for electric cars, will be an electric car, the IEA’s Executive Director Fatih Birol said on Tuesday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.  

“In addition to this immediate response to the energy crisis, there is also more structural response coming from the countries,” Birol said.

In the Global EV Outlook 2022 published in May 2022, the IEA said that while electric car sales continued to break records, mineral supply constraints are looming. Battery supply chains face bottlenecks and lack diversification as most battery metal processing is being done in China, according to the IEA.

“Pressure on the supply of critical materials will continue to mount as road transport electrification expands to meet net-zero ambitions. Additional investments are needed in the short term, particularly in mining, where lead times are much longer than for other parts of the supply chain,” the agency said.

The IEA also praised in October the surge in renewables and EVs for limiting the rise in global emissions. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels globally were expected to rise by just under 1% in 2022, a much smaller increase compared to last year’s thanks to record deployment of renewable energy sources and electric vehicles, the IEA said in October. In 2021, CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels jumped as the global economy began to recover rapidly from the economic crisis triggered by Covid, the IEA said. 

In 2022, the rise in those emissions would be much smaller, defying expectations of a major jump because of the increased use of coal for power generation amid soaring natural gas prices, the international agency said.  

By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com


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Leave a comment
  • Mike Lewicki on January 17 2023 said:
    Not a chance.

    The head of Auto Nation said last year 5%.

  • Mamdouh Salameh on January 17 2023 said:
    Nothing Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) loves more than hogging the limelight and making outlandish and unsubstantiated claims at International forums. His latest claim at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland that half of all cars sold in the top markets of the world, China, the United States and Europe, will be electric by 2030 is no exception.

    But the facts on the ground don’t support his claim. Excluding medium- and heavy-duty trucks, light vehicles sales in the world in 2022 totalled 37.55 million cars of which only 267,203 EVs were sold or 0.71% of the total.

    If we extrapolate these figures to 2030 basing them on global 10% sale growth rate, EVs sale in 2030 will amount to 1.52% of global sales of 80 million units. So how did Fatih Birol come up with a figure of 50%?

    Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
    International Oil Economist
    Global Energy Expert
  • David Jones on January 19 2023 said:
    50% of new car sales by 2030 in those 3 markets is a conservative estimate. The figure Dr Salameh quotes of 267,203 EVs sold for 2022 is in fact the total UK sales, not global. The 267k means the UK achieved 16.6% pure EV sales in 2022. The global numbers for 2022 are in fact 7.8m EVs sold, representing 10% of the world market. In the next 8 years that 10% will easily grow by 40 percentage points to 50%.
    EVs are better in every way to ICE vehicles, as people realise this they will either switch to an EV, or if they can’t afford it they will delay purchasing another car until they can, this will destroy demand for ICE vehicles (the Osbourne Effect).
    Changes from one technology to another are never linear, they generally follow an S curve, growth in EVs are just starting to accelerate.
    New sales are not the same as the fleet, but by 2030 most sales will be EVs. It will then take another decade or two to replace the global fleet. But with vehicles driven the most replaced first, oil demand will fall quickly.

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