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Martin Tillier

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Have Markets Become Too Negative On Oil?

Sustained market moves such as we have seen in stocks and oil over the last few months are never the result of one piece of news or data point, so it follows that one should be careful of interpreting one thing as the catalyst for changing direction. Still, with a jobs report this morning that can only be seen as indicating real strength in the U.S. economy, it is hard not to see it as a potential turning point for both markets. Nor is that the only good news. Over the last couple of days there have been indications that the worries that have beset the oil market in particular are all being resolved.

This morning we learned that non-farm payrolls increased by a whopping 312k, well above expectations for around 180k, and wages grew by 3.4% on an annual basis, indicative of strong growth to come. The reaction in stocks may be tempered by the possibility that the Fed will see that as a reason to continue raising interest rates but for crude oil, it is hard to see a downside. If the Fed does raise rates further, this report shows that the U.S. economy can withstand it, and if they do it will be in response to rising prices, a dynamic that will apply to crude as well as everything else.

This jobs report was also strong enough to have implications beyond U.S. borders. America is not the world, but a vibrant U.S. economy can go a long way towards lifting global growth. That is especially true given that China announced that they are further loosening restrictions on banks…


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