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Dan Dicker

Dan Dicker

Dan Dicker is a 25 year veteran of the New York Mercantile Exchange where he traded crude oil, natural gas, unleaded gasoline and heating oil…

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Geopolitics and the Changing Oil Market

In the oil markets today there’s a lot to talk about, almost too much.  I have never seen such a disarray of geopolitical influences on the oil market at any other point in my 25-year career and it comes at a time when financial influences are similarly changing quickly.

Stay with me for a moment, because the only way I can get you to understand what’s happening in oil, now and in the future, is to get a little wonky on you and take you into my world of financial and not fundamental oil.  I outlined my career thesis on the oil markets in my 2011 book “Oil’s Endless Bid” but the most important point I made was that financial inputs into oil markets have been more critical to understand than even the most basic fundamental challenges of supply and demand.  That remains even truer today than in 2014.  

Here’s what I mean:  I could not, in perhaps even my wildest dreams, imagine an oil market that is under more geopolitical risk than it is today:  The Saudis are ever suspicious of the Iranians, with oil their only political lever; Iran cannot find a nuclear agreement that satisfies them and sanctions are again a looming possibility; Syria still smolders; The Russians have seen a commercial jet shot down in disputed airspace with an ex-Republic that controls virtually all of the EU’s energy supply; Libya’s oil supply is dependent on who’s controlling the ports this week and Israel saw…

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