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Jim Hyerczyk

Jim Hyerczyk

Fundamental and technical analyst with 30 years experience.

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Crude oil is set to post a strong gain for the week, boosted by a last minute decision by OPEC on September 28 at an informal meeting in Algiers to limit output. The initial thrust higher by the December Crude Oil market was very powerful, leading some to believe the move had set off the start of a new bull market. That opinion was likely held by momentum traders and non-professional investors who tend to be attracted to monumental moves in a market without really knowing the internal structure of the rally.

I am in the group who share the opinion that the proposal to limit production is full of holes that need to be filled before this market develops a sustainable rally. I still believe the market is over-supplied and given the history of OPEC and its previous failed plans to curb production, I am still skeptical that any such agreement will be followed long enough to put a sizeable dent in the huge global supply.

However, I am smart enough to know that I have to let the moves play out and not to fight the short-term momentum or the long-term trend if one develops. I’m not against this market moving higher or lower. But if I start to buy aggressively, I want to make sure I have big money behind me because I’m not capable of moving the market myself. This means I need to find out as quickly as possible if the price surge on September 28 and the follow-through move on September 29 was triggered by new buying or aggressive short-covering. This is because…

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