It was in the last several columns here at Oilprice premium that I positively laid down my timeline for recovering oil markets. In Late August I noted to you that the negativity that was pummeling oil stocks was creating several fantastic value opportunities, and counseled to find price targets to either begin accumulating or add to already existing, but very specific energy positions.
On September 1st, I sent out an email alert with a simple message: “…..a great opportunity has finally arrived”.
Those that heeded this call have been rewarded with some stellar gains.
But in the last week, I have been smiling as I see more and more of the ‘regular team’ of oil analysts join me – if a bit late – in my constructive view of oil and oil stocks.
First of note is Ed Morse of Citibank. Morse is looking at the marginal OPEC members outside of Saudi Arabia and noticing that they are also strapped for capital to develop fresh oil assets. Morse believes that investment won’t be quick to appear, with global oil companies now far more conservative in their foreign investment, and with these countries like Iran, Iraq, Libya and Nigeria all faltering economically under the strain of three years of underpriced oil.
Morse believes the output we’re seeing from these countries is about as much as they can manage and they won’t be able to pump much more, no matter how strong demand is for the rest of 2017…