In the last several weeks, we’ve enjoyed a turnaround in oil stocks, accelerated by the two major storms in Texas and Florida.
And with a bit of a smile, we’ve seen more and more analysts convinced of the renaissance in oil prices that I advised you was coming months ago.
In my last column I pointed out Ed Morse of Citibank and Evan Calio of Morgan Stanley changing their bearish tune.
This week, we’ve seen a positive note on oil from Goldman Sachs, who only two weeks ago thought that the Harvey and Irma storms were going to kill demand and therefore be bearish for oil instead.
Goldman have been joined by the head commodity analyst for S+P/Dow Jones – who sees 80 oil on the horizon. Private trading house Trafigura also joined in abandoning the “lower for longer” idea for the current oil markets.
Finally, Moody’s indicated that they believe shale oil companies can make no further progress at $50 oil and will need higher prices for any significant further increase in production – something I’ve been saying as well for months. Look at this move from Anadarko, now more concerned with cash flow than production increases. I am convinced this will become a major, very significant trend with the mini-majors for the rest of 2017 and into 2018. This trend makes the production projections of the EIA of another 1M barrels a day for US producers for 2018 downright silly.
But oil has taken a break…