Crude oil and natural gas futures posted volatile moves this week that may be setting up another sharp rise to the upside, or a corrective move to the downside. Both markets have potential to rally further even after huge rallies, but since the moves are highly speculative, traders may be expressing a little caution about playing the upside in both markets at current price levels.
The natural gas story is bullish because of expectations of a cold winter after the summer heat trimmed the excess supply. Crude oil is bullish because OPEC is working on a plan to limit output in the face of a huge global supply glut.
The stories behind the current speculative moves are bullish, but may not be proven until well into the future – late November for crude oil and late December for natural gas. So the current rallies may be indicting that price is too far ahead of time. If this is a valid conclusion then we may see a pullback over the near-term into value zones. In this article, I’ve identified the pattern and price levels driving these markets this week and the next.
Weekly December Oil
(Click to enlarge)
The main trend is up according to the Weekly December Crude Oil chart. The change in trend occurred last week when buyers took out the previous top at $50.59.
Despite the strong upside momentum in October, this week’s price action suggests the rally may be stalling. The first sign of weakness will be a break back below the…