An Israeli Invasion of Lebanon Could Boost the Russia-Iran Alliance

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict

If Israel invades Lebanon, Washington fears it will hasten a Russia-Iran alliance, with one geographical part of that scenario already underway in Yemen. U.S. intelligence claims (according to a Middle East news outlet) that Putin had already approached the Saudis for permission to arm the Houthis with anti-ship cruise missiles.

Two unexpected outcomes in France this week after snap parliamentary elections. The far-right won a record number of votes in French snap parliamentary elections, leaving Macron’s centrists sidelined with only 20%. The far-right made very significant gains.

Again, illicit weapons are entering Libya, this time Chinese military drones disguised as wind turbines on two separate container ships–both seized by Italian authorities. Italy is keeping a keen eye on its ports and waterways, as those weapons are going either to General Haftar in the east or to the Russians, who are looking to build a port on Libya’s coast–a direct shot across to Italy.

Iran held presidential elections on June 28 and the runoff on July 2. Reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian was said to have a very narrow lead over his runoff rival, hardline candidate Saeed Jalili, just before polls opened again on Wednesday Results from voting were not yet in at the time of writing. The winner of the election must be approved by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, whose views are ultraconservative hardline. That means that even if Pezeshkian wins the vote, he may not be allowed to assume the presidency unless the Supreme Leader has determined that Pezeshkian’s wider popularity might be of benefit right now in Tehran.

Discovery & Development

More than a dozen oil firms are competing to purchase a sizable portion of Galp Energia's noteworthy Mopane discovery, including industry titans like Exxon, Shell, and Brazil's Petrobras. This discovery in Namibia has the potential to be worth $10 billion because it is thought to contain over 10 billion barrels of oil and gas equivalent. Back in April, Galp started the process of selling off half of its 80% ownership in Petroleum Exploration Licence 83, including operating control. Numerous companies have already examined the geological data (Exxon, Chevron, Shell, TotalEnergies, etc). Several have made non-binding offers, though the process remains shrouded in secrecy.

French TotalEnergies intends to abandon its offshore gas-condensate finds in order to focus exploratory efforts closer to Namibia. Two major discoveries in South Africa have not yet made it to the development stage, and there have also been questions about the commercial viability of domestic supply given the high cost that will be associated with developing a complicated deepwater project.

The Saudis have announced seven new oil and gas deposits. Aramco said it discovered two unconventional oilfields, a light Arabian oil reservoir, and two natural gas fields.

Deals, Mergers & Acquisitions

Spanish Repsol is reportedly in talks to merge its UK North Sea oil and gas operations with private-equity-backed NEO Energy (Reuters sources), which could potentially give the new entity over 110,000 boepd, which would also make it the top producer in the UK North Sea. A painful windfall tax is helping to force consolidation in the UK oil and gas industry.