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Matt Smith

Matt Smith

Taking a voyage across the world of energy with ClipperData’s Director of Commodity Research. Follow on Twitter @ClipperData, @mattvsmith01

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A September To Remember?

And the crude complex is like a bruised prize fighter this morning, trying to get up off the canvas after being knocked down once again. Prices have had a whiff of smelling salts from overnight markets, as the yuan has stabilized, giving way to some dollar weakness. We’ve got a number of different data releases to digest today, before we get the crude-specific cherry on top to round out the week, with the Baker Hughes rig count this afternoon.

Producer prices out in the U.S. this morning have ticked higher, indicating that inflation is steadying after a few months of deflationary wobbles – lending some strength to input prices. Industrial production is on deck shortly, with the University of Michigan sentiment data to follow.

In terms of overnight action, China’s equity market eked out a positive gain amid a stabilizing yuan, further aided by the Chinese market regulator essentially inferring it would prop up the equity market for years to come. I wonder what we’ll think in 30 years’ time when we look back at the market intervention we have seen across the globe in the last half a decade or so. Hum dee dum. Related: Could This Be The Next Great Renewable Energy Source?

From one continent to another, we’ve had an economic data dump out of Europe, with GDP data being the most dominating factor. Eurozone economic growth in the second quarter came in at +1.2% YoY (+0.3% QoQ), below consensus of +1.3%, as Germany led the charge (+0.4% QoQ), while France countered it (flat as a pancake). Inflation data served to highlight the lack thereof, although not in deflationary terrain anymore (c’mon folks, let’s be glass half-full about this…it’s Friday after all):

Eurozone CPI (YoY) (source: investing.com)

(Click to enlarge) Related: Better Times Ahead For Oil, If You Can Believe It

Turning to U.S.-centric concerns, the below epically epic chart starkly highlights the issues caused by the Whiting refinery outage. Chicago retail gasoline prices have spiked by 50 cents, dragging the national average higher by 6 cents, in a counter-seasonal spike kind-of-way:


(Click to enlarge)

And it’s an epic day for charts it would appear, as the below graphic is nearly as stark as the above (but not quite) for highlighting market adjustments. Back in January, a June rate hike was baked into the cake. By April, the timer was adjusted to September. Now in August, and December is starting to be priced in instead: Related: Where Is Oil Heading? New Reports From IEA, OPEC, And EIA Provide Clues

By Matt Smith

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