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Jim Hyerczyk

Jim Hyerczyk

Fundamental and technical analyst with 30 years experience.

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A Base For Oil Might Be Forming But Expect Choppy Markets

April Crude Oil futures had a strong week, having posted as much as a 7.5 percent gain. The weekly chart looks smooth and range bound, but the daily chart is reflecting a tremendous amount of volatility. The price action on the weekly chart indicates that a bottom may have been established and that a support base may be forming. The daily chart shows that traders are reacting to the news about a possible production freeze with very little focus on the long-term picture.

The range trade on the weekly chart and the base-building process may actually be a good thing. There’s an old saying among chart-watchers that “The height of the market is determined by the length of the base”. So if investors want to hold this market in a range over the near-term then this could be helpful for the bullish traders over the long-run.

If you like trading action then the daily chart is the place to be. Its price action suggests traders have become more reactive rather than proactive. The lure of quick short-term profits make this type of trading attractive to traders. It will work as long as traders want to react to the news and if the news basically stays the same.

Everyone seems to know the current story – buy when the headline is about a deal to cut output and sell when the headline says the deal has fizzled. At some point, however, the news driving the market is going to change and this is when short-term trading will get difficult. Always remember…

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