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Dan Dicker

Dan Dicker

Dan Dicker is a 25 year veteran of the New York Mercantile Exchange where he traded crude oil, natural gas, unleaded gasoline and heating oil…

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Weather The Oil Storm For Real Rewards

It’s just perfect, that I would appear on CNBC’s halftime report for the first time in a year and a half predicting much higher oil prices, and watch today as WTI crude sinks under $90 for the first time in almost two years.  But ‘fast money’ is not what I’m about and oil is in an undoubtedly bearish trend.  The short term is to bank on lower prices for a time, perhaps, but for the long term – that’s not the bet I want to make.

Analysts love to come up with reasons why oil is sinking – now – while they couldn’t find reason to be short oil when it was expensive.  Domestic oil production?  Those targets reaching almost 9 million barrels a day are yesterday’s news, as are the projections of 10m b/d in 2016.  Slackening demand is a canard, as it is not global demand that is falling, it is the RATE of INCREASE in demand that is showing some slack.  We will still need 650,000 b/d of oil more in 2015 than we did in 2014, and a projected 800,000 b/d more than that in 2016.  

It is, of course, the dollar trade and the race to the bottom of devaluing currencies about to be embarked upon that is ultimately the biggest pressure on oil prices.  Look at any chart of the dollar against any other currency – the yen, the euro, the pound – and ask yourself a question:  Are you ready, looking at that chart, to get long the dollar NOW?  If you are, you’re…

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