I love it when the trolls come out of hiding, as they have this last week, specifically to rag me for ‘missing’ the last rally in energy stocks. Trolls have the best vantage point to pick stocks; they’re anonymous, never wrong, always up money and tend to disappear when their cheap seats commentary turn out wrong. I don’t have any of those luxuries.
Fortunately, I do have 25 years of experience in the oil markets successfully trading oil and oil stocks – even yesterday as I filed my taxes and despite being outrageously wrong about the massive collapse of oil and oil stocks in 2014, I still managed a trading positive to declare. That’s what good discipline in trading can do for you.
And it is that experience and discipline that is telling me that you still have to stay far away from beta names and oil services in the stock market right now – they are all massively overpriced based on my forecast for oil prices over the next several quarters and quarterly reports about to come in that are going to be horrendous.
Look, I was all about trying to find value when oil prices were in the mid-$40’s and you couldn’t give away the shares of some of the strongest E+P’s. Not only did I recommend names like EOG Resources (EOG) and Anadarko (APC) and Cimarex (XEC), but I also bought them – along with a beta name or two that just looked unnecessarily cheap, like Oasis Petroleum (OAS).