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Irina Slav

Irina Slav

Irina is a writer for the U.S.-based Divergente LLC consulting firm with over a decade of experience writing on the oil and gas industry.

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Rising OPEC Production Weighs On Oil Prices

After a brief respite in August, OPEC oil production rose once again in September, to 32.75 million bpd, up 88,500 bpd from the previous month, the cartel reported in its latest Monthly Oil Market Report. August was the first month in five when OPEC production declined.

Under the production agreement, OPEC committed to 32.5 million bpd.

Libya led the September increase, with a 53,900-bpd monthly rise in its crude oil production, to 923,000 bpd.

It was followed by Nigeria, which pumped 50,800 bpd more last month, to an average daily of 1.855 million bpd. This secondary-source figure is higher than the 1.8-million-bpd mark Nigeria had set for itself as the level at which it would stop raising production and join its co-members in OPEC in their global supply cutting efforts. Nigeria has not yet provided its own production calculations.

The third largest contributor to the monthly increase in OPEC’s production was Iraq, which pumped 31,600 bpd more in September compared to August. Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Qatar, and Iran also produced more crude last month, while Venezuela’s production fell the most, by 51,900 bpd.

The news of OPEC’s production increase is bad news for those hoping for a longer oil price recovery, as it confirms several OPEC production estimates from cargo-tracking service providers, and is in contrast to OPEC reports heralding its excellent compliance to the November 2016 oil production cut pact. Related: Oil Giants At Odds As Saudi, Russian Ties Improve

The cartel tried to cushion the blow by revising its 2017 and 2018 world oil demand forecast by about 30,000 bpd in 2017 and 2018. After this latest update, OPEC now expects crude oil demand this year to grow by 1.5 million bpd and in 2018 it sees it growing by 1.4 million barrels daily.

Supply from non-OPEC producers, on the other hand, is seen to grow by 700,000 bpd this year and by 900,000 bpd in 2018. The 2017 figure is a downward revision by 100,000 bpd from the September MOMR and the 2018 non-OPEC supply growth rate is 60,000 bpd lower than the previous estimate.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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  • Matt on October 11 2017 said:
    So, a 0.0027 rise in the OPEC production figures from one month to the next warrants a headline such as accompanies this article? Really?

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