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Ron Patterson

Ron Patterson

Ron Patterson is a retired computer engineer. He worked in Saudi Arabia for five years, two years at the Ghazlan Power Plant near Ras Tanura…

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How OPEC Continues To Cheat On Its Own Deal

All data below is based on the latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.

All data is through September 2017 and is in thousand barrels per day.

(Click to enlarge)

The above chart does not include the 14th member of OPEC that was recently added, Equatorial Guinea. I do not have historical data for Equatorial Guinea so I may not add them at all. OPEC production has held steady for the past four months. Equatorial Guinea production is tiny, 141,000 bpd so their monthly change in production can be ignored without much effect. OPEC 14 production was up 88,000 barrels per day in September. But that was after their August production had been revised downward by 82,000 bpd.
The OPEC 13, (not including Equatorial Guinea), peaked in 2016 at 32,385 kbpd and are down 150 kbpd for the first 9 months of 2017. Please note that when I say “peaked” I mean “peaked so far“. I am well aware of the fact that OPEC, or some OPEC nations may have further peaks in the future.

(Click to enlarge)

Not much is happening in Algeria. They peaked in 2008 at 1,393 kbpd and their annual average is down 338 kbpd since then.
Note: Here and below the annual average being down from the peak, I am referring to the average of the first 9 months of 2017. And, of course, I am aware that there may be further peaks down the road although that is highly unlikely for all but a couple of OPEC nations. That is because every OPEC nation is currently producing every barrel they possibly can and that includes Saudi Arabia.

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Angola peaked in 2008 at 1,870 kbpd and are down 229 kbpd since then.

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Ecuador peaked in 2015 at 547 kbpd and they are down 16 kbpd since then.

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Gabon peaked in 1997 at 230 kbpd and they are down 29 kbpd since then. Note: My annual data only goes back to 1997 so their production could have been higher prior to 1997.

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Iran peaked in 2005 at 3,938 kbpd in 2005 and they are down 131 kbpd since then.

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Iraq’s average production, this year, is 4,452 kbpd and that is a new high for them. Iraq is the only OPEC nation to reach an average yearly peak this year.

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Kuwait peaked in 2012 at 2,794 kbpd and their annual production, this year, is down 87 kbpd since then.

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Libya’s production peaked in 2008 at 1,717 kbpd and their annual production is down 951 kbpd since then.

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Nigeria’s production peaked in 2005 at 2,413 kbpd and their annual average production is down 717 kbpd since then. Nigeria seems to have solved some of their political problems however. Their annual production should increase further this year and in 2018. But I don’t expect it to reach levels they reached in 2010 and 2011.

Related: Oil Giants At Odds As Saudi, Russian Ties Improve

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Qatar’s oil production peaked in 2008 at 841 kbpd and they are down 230 kbpd since then. Qatar has the largest percentage, non-political decline of any OPEC nation. That is their very large decline is due entirely to depletion of their reserves.

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Saudi production peaked in 2016 at 10,338 kbpd and their average production for 2017 is down 443 kbpd so far.

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UAE production also peaked in 2016 at 2,927 kbpd and their average production is down only 8 kbpd this year.

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Again, my annual data only goes back to 1997 and that is when I have Venezuela peaking at 3,240 kbpd and their average annual production is down 1,280 kbpd since then. It is unclear as to how much the decline in Venezuela’s production is due to politics. Much of it is no doubt but the political situation there is so desperate that it will likely take decades for them to recover even a small percentage of their decline.

(Click to enlarge)

Of Non-OPEC news I need to add Russia’s latest production chart.

(Click to enlarge)

Russia’s average for the first 9 months of 2017 is 10,947 kbpd. That is the peak so far.

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The above Non-OPEC data is from the EIA is through June only. Non-OPEC peaked in 2015 at 46,509 kbpd and the average for the first six months of 2017 is down 879 kbpd to 45,629 kbpd.

(Click to enlarge)

World C+C through June 2017. Peak 12 month average was 2016 at 80,556 kbpd. The first 6 months of 2017 was 80,480 kbpd. That is, so far, 77 kbpd below last year.

By Ron Patterson via Peakoilbarrel.com

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