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Dan Dicker

Dan Dicker

Dan Dicker is a 25 year veteran of the New York Mercantile Exchange where he traded crude oil, natural gas, unleaded gasoline and heating oil…

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One Player That’s Not Headed Off A Cliff

EOG Resources, despite their first miss in 8 quarters, has proven again it is best of breed of the shale players with its declared strategy for 2015. As prices for the stock get hit in the next days and weeks because of its miss and dropping crude prices, it would be a great opportunity to start a long-term position in the company. They are ultimately going to outpace virtually everyone else in the space.

At the North American Prospect Expo, a conference for oil and gas players, KeyBank Capital used a slide proclaiming “Keep calm and frack on” – a jokey way to reassure the E+P’s that the downturn in crude is temporary and ‘staying the course’ on production is the smart response.

Wrong, wrong, wrong. Virtually every E+P has cut capex to the bone, laid down all but the most efficient and productive rigs, turned the remaining rigs up to produce as fast as they can and guided for increased production for 2015.

That’s good business, right? If you are always and inexorably valued on the street by your production, by how many barrels of oil equivalent you’ve increased from last quarter, then only this breakneck plan of attack will ‘save’ you from this ‘temporary’ setback in crude prices.

Only that’s what everyone is depending on – and a collective hallucination has formed inside each E+P individually where ‘the other guy’ finally gets broken financially and stops pumping, but it’s never them. But here’s the hallucination: There IS no other guy – production…




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