• 4 minutes Get First Access To The Oilprice App!
  • 7 minutes Blame Oil Price or EVs for Car Market Crash? Auto Recession Has Started
  • 11 minutes Japanese Refiners Load First Iran Oil Cargo Since U.S. Sanctions
  • 13 minutes Oil prices forecast
  • 8 hours *Happy Dance* ... U.S. Shale Oil Slowdown
  • 7 hours Emissions from wear of brakes and tyres likely to be higher in supposedly clean vehicles, experts warn
  • 2 hours Oceans "Under Fire" Of Plastic Trash
  • 7 hours Is Natural Gas Renewable? I say yes it is.
  • 36 mins Renewables in US Set for Fast Growth
  • 2 hours Chinese FDI in U.S. Drops 90%: America's Clueless Tech Entrepreneurs
  • 8 hours Making Fun of EV Owners: ICE-ing Trend?
  • 17 hours Algorithms Taking Over Oil Fields
  • 7 hours Socialists want to exorcise the O&G demon by 2030
  • 20 hours Europe Slipping into Recession?
  • 1 day Nuclear Power Can Be Green – But At A Price
  • 22 hours UK, Stay in EU, Says Tusk
  • 14 hours Orphan Wells
Dan Dicker

Dan Dicker

Dan Dicker is a 25 year veteran of the New York Mercantile Exchange where he traded crude oil, natural gas, unleaded gasoline and heating oil…

More Info

Oil Will Be The Place To Be In 2016 And 2017

After insane volatility in oil and oil stocks, a recap on the macro scene in energy and the few specific stocks need updating after this week's carnage (and only partial recovery).

First, to the macro: Oil and oil companies continue to follow the timetable of destruction whose path began almost exactly one year ago today. Of the five major inputs to the decline on oil that I outlined in my book leading to oil's continuing price collapse, it is obvious that the Chinese GDP fantasy (and also the Yuan devaluation race) was the straw that broke oil's back on Monday (as well as the major averages). I was rather certain that oil's lows of the early spring would not be significantly broken, but the power of the Chinese disaster was enough to send it briefly down to $38. To be instantly clear about this, this move did NOT signal a sell, nor upset my macro scenario in oil or oil stocks.

We have always maintained that oil's bust would be a very long process, with no significant bull market reestablishing itself until at least the end of 1Q 2016. Production from OPEC sources is inelastic in that there are no incentives to impose tougher quotas – the Saudi plan is working in destroying US production competition and hobbling Iran and they won't let up until there is quite a bit more blood on the streets in the form of bankrupted shale players and reduced projected supply from other OECD sources.

And the signs for that coming soon are everywhere. Rigs, down 1000…

To read the full article

Please sign up and become a premium OilPrice.com member to gain access to read the full article.

RegisterLogin



Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News