• 3 minutes e-car sales collapse
  • 6 minutes America Is Exceptional in Its Political Divide
  • 11 minutes Perovskites, a ‘dirt cheap’ alternative to silicon, just got a lot more efficient
  • 21 hours GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES
  • 5 days Does Toyota Know Something That We Don’t?
  • 5 days World could get rid of Putin and Russia but nobody is bold enough
  • 1 day America should go after China but it should be done in a wise way.
  • 7 days China is using Chinese Names of Cities on their Border with Russia.
  • 8 days Russian Officials Voice Concerns About Chinese-Funded Rail Line
  • 8 days OPINION: Putin’s Genocidal Myth A scholarly treatise on the thousands of years of Ukrainian history. RCW
  • 8 days CHINA Economy IMPLODING - Fastest Price Fall in 14 Years & Stock Market Crashes to 5 Year Low
  • 7 days CHINA Economy Disaster - Employee Shortages, Retirement Age, Birth Rate & Ageing Population
  • 8 days Putin and Xi Bet on the Global South
  • 8 days "(Another) Putin Critic 'Falls' Out Of Window, Dies"
  • 9 days United States LNG Exports Reach Third Place
  • 9 days Biden's $2 trillion Plan for Insfrastructure and Jobs
Jim Hyerczyk

Jim Hyerczyk

Fundamental and technical analyst with 30 years experience.

More Info

Oil Market Forecast & Review 1st March 2013

Last week it was mentioned that nearby crude oil was expected to complete a test of the retracement zone at $92.37 to $90.85 and likely stay in this zone until the fundamental traders could reassess the economic conditions. After initially testing the 50% level at $92.37, the market fell further into the zone to $91.92 before establishing short-term support on the daily chart.

Despite the sharp sell-off from $98.79, the main trend is up. Since the break from the top is holding inside the retracement zone, one has to conclude that crude oil is in a corrective mode. Typically, this type of break is triggered by uncertainty. Bullish traders tend to lose their focus and begin to search for excuses to pare positions. This usually means a short-term break into more attractive price levels.

Some of the fundamental reasons for the recent weakness are commercial hedging pressure, a sluggish economy, and lower demand for higher risk assets. One clue that the market was nearing a top was a shift to the short-side of the market by commercial traders according to the Commitment of Traders Report. This was followed by speculation that the economy was at a standstill because of persistent rumors about flat gross domestic production. Finally, turmoil in the Euro Zone and talk of ending the Fed’s bond-buying program drove investors into the safety of the U.S. Dollar.

All three of these factors were relevant to the weakness exhibited in the crude oil futures market…




EXXON Mobil -0.35
Open57.81 Trading Vol.6.96M Previous Vol.241.7B
BUY 57.15
Sell 57.00
Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News