• 4 minutes Energy Armageddon
  • 6 minutes How Far Have We Really Gotten With Alternative Energy
  • 10 minutes Russia Says Europe Will Struggle To Replace Its Oil Products
  • 2 mins GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES
  • 5 hours Reality catching up with EV forecasts
  • 19 hours Famous author Michael Crichton talks about the "Climate Change Religion" aka Feudalism 2.0
  • 6 days 87,000 new IRS agents, higher taxes, and a massive green energy slush fund... "Here Are The Winners And Losers In The 'Inflation Reduction Act'"-ZeroHedge
  • 12 days A Somewhat Realistic View of the Near Future for Electric Vehicles Worldwide
  • 12 days "Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Grinding Toward Summer Highs Despite Huge Short Interest" by James Hyerczyk & REUTERS on NatGas
Jim Hyerczyk

Jim Hyerczyk

Fundamental and technical analyst with 30 years experience.

More Info

Oil Market Forecast & Review 19th July 2013

September Crude Oil futures reached a new high for the year this week, but there was very little follow-through. This is a good sign that conditions are overbought and that some well-established longs may have been paring their positions at current price levels.

The recent vertical move is a strong sign that speculators have been driving the market higher. These speculators have been event driven and could begin to pullout of their long spots when the news changes. Recently, fortunate speculators caught a strong rally that was fueled by political uncertainty in Egypt, falling supply and a weaker dollar. All of these factors contributed in some way to the recent surge in oil prices.


Click to enlarge.

Now that the unrest has subsided in Egypt, some investors may begin to book profits after a wild run to the upside. This has probably been happening since it looks like upside momentum has slowed. The U.S. Dollar has survived a successful retracement and could be ready for a near-term rally. This too may have a negative effect on oil prices. Finally, supply continues to fall according to the latest government reports. This should continue to underpin the market, but is probably not enough to trigger a move to new highs.

With the market trading at such lofty price levels, investors should watch for a closing price reversal top on either the weekly or the daily chart to signal the start of the next retracement. Since the dollar reacts almost every day…




EXXON Mobil -0.35
Open57.81 Trading Vol.6.96M Previous Vol.241.7B
BUY 57.15
Sell 57.00
Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News