• 2 minutes Rational analysis of CV19 from Harvard Medical School
  • 4 minutes While U.S. Pipelines Are Under Siege, China Streamlines Its Oil and Gas Network
  • 7 minutes Renewables Overtake Coal, But Lag Far Behind Oil And Natural Gas
  • 11 hours Joe Biden the "Archie Bunker" of the left selects Kamala Harris for VP . . . . . . Does she help the campaign ?
  • 1 min Tesla Begins Construction Of World’s Largest Energy Storage Facility
  • 18 hours Trump Hands Putin Major Geopolitical Victory
  • 3 hours America Could Go Fully Electric Right Now
  • 59 mins Will any journalist have the balls to ask Kamala if she supports Wall Street "Carried Interest" Tax Loophole
  • 12 hours Those Nasty White People and Camping Racism
  • 58 mins In 1,267 days, Trump has made 20,055 false or misleading claims
  • 7 hours COVID&life and Vicious Circle: "Working From Home Is Not Panacea For Virus"
  • 2 hours .
  • 17 mins Brent above $45. Holding breath for $50??
  • 3 hours Buying votes is cool now.
  • 14 hours The Truth about Chinese and Indian Engineering
  • 2 days China wields coronavirus to nationalize American-owned carmaker
  • 1 day Oil Tanker Runs Aground in Mauritius - Oil Spill
  • 2 days Open letter from Politico about US-russian relations
  • 1 hour The World is Facing a Solar Panel Waste Problem
Jim Hyerczyk

Jim Hyerczyk

Fundamental and technical analyst with 30 years experience.

More Info

Oil Market Forecast & Review 19th July 2013

September Crude Oil futures reached a new high for the year this week, but there was very little follow-through. This is a good sign that conditions are overbought and that some well-established longs may have been paring their positions at current price levels.

The recent vertical move is a strong sign that speculators have been driving the market higher. These speculators have been event driven and could begin to pullout of their long spots when the news changes. Recently, fortunate speculators caught a strong rally that was fueled by political uncertainty in Egypt, falling supply and a weaker dollar. All of these factors contributed in some way to the recent surge in oil prices.


Click to enlarge.

Now that the unrest has subsided in Egypt, some investors may begin to book profits after a wild run to the upside. This has probably been happening since it looks like upside momentum has slowed. The U.S. Dollar has survived a successful retracement and could be ready for a near-term rally. This too may have a negative effect on oil prices. Finally, supply continues to fall according to the latest government reports. This should continue to underpin the market, but is probably not enough to trigger a move to new highs.

With the market trading at such lofty price levels, investors should watch for a closing price reversal top on either the weekly or the daily chart to signal the start of the next retracement. Since the dollar reacts almost every day…




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News