• 3 minutes China has *Already* Lost the Trade War. Meantime, the U.S. Might Sanction China’s Largest Oil Company
  • 7 minutes Saudi and UAE pressure to get US support for Oil quotas is reportedly on..
  • 11 minutes China devalues currency to lower prices to address new tariffs. But doesn't help. Here is why. . . .
  • 15 minutes What is your current outlook as a day trader for WTI
  • 16 hours In The Bright Of New Administration Rules: Immigrants as Economic Contributors
  • 10 hours Will Uncle Sam Step Up and Cut Production
  • 1 day Movie Script: Epstein Guards Suspected Of Falsifying Logs
  • 33 mins Domino Effect: Rashida Tlaib Rejects Israel's Offer For 'Humanitarian' Visit To West Bank
  • 11 hours Trump vs. Xi Trade Battle, Running Commentary from Conservative Tree House
  • 14 hours Continental Resource's Hamm (Trump Buddy) wants shale to cut production.Can't compete with peers. Stock will drop in half again.
  • 1 day Significant: Boeing Delays Delivery Of Ultra-Long-Range Version Of 777X
  • 3 hours Gretta Thunbergs zero carbon voyage carbon foot print of carbon fibre manufacture
  • 7 hours NATGAS, LNG, Technology, benefits etc , cleaner global energy fuel
  • 2 days I think I might be wrong about a 2020 shakeout
  • 2 days Kremlin Says WTO's Existence Would Be In Doubt If the U.S., Others Left
  • 1 day Why Oil is Falling (including conspiracy theories and other fun stuff)
  • 51 days To be(lieve) or Not To be(lieve): U.S. Treasury Secretary Says U.S.-China Trade Deal Is 90% Done
Alt Text

Will We See An Oil Supply Glut In 2020?

Oil prices seem to be…

Alt Text

Saudis Scramble To Arrest Oil Price Slide

Saudi Arabia has approached other…

Martin Tillier

Martin Tillier

More Info

Premium Content

Is It Time To Go Long On Crude?

Last week, I wrote that I expected a bounce in crude before long, and as WTI has continued to fall the trolls have had a field day, pointing out that I was wrong. Let’s for a minute not dwell on the fact that I said it may not happen immediately and assume that it was simply a wrong call. I can only assume that those pointing that out have never traded or are new to it as a pastime. The simple fact is that in a dealing room, pointing out that somebody got a call wrong is like pointing out that they are breathing. Getting things wrong is an everyday, or rather many times every day, occurrence; what defines you is how you deal with it and what you do next.

Sometimes that means simply changing your view. To do that involves understanding something fundamental…the market can never be “wrong”. I was taught early in my dealing room career that while you may believe that the market is missing something important or misinterpreting some information, the price is simply an expression of the last point at which two counterparties were prepared to transact. As such, it can’t be “wrong”. That is encapsulated in the old saying that the market can stay illogical a lot longer than you can stay solvent.

In this case though, while I understand that the market isn’t wrong, I do believe that fundamental and technical factors combine to make a rapid reversal likely at some point soon and am therefore prepared to have another crack at…


Leave a comment
  • Ajex John on November 11 2018 said:
    Bounce back start only when you see a positive sign . At the moment market is heading towards 50’s . Anything below 55 means 50 . . My buy is around 50 and TP is around 60

Leave a comment




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News
Download on the App Store Get it on Google Play