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Dan Dicker

Dan Dicker

Dan Dicker is a 25 year veteran of the New York Mercantile Exchange where he traded crude oil, natural gas, unleaded gasoline and heating oil…

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How To Play The Calm Before The OPEC Storm

Oil

The potential result of November 30th’s OPEC meeting is dominating oil trading and oil stocks for the next week, so while we continue to digest our Thanksgiving turkey and wait for that outcome, there are three important macro ideas I want to bring to you during the slow trading week to come.

First is about the meeting itself. As a trader, the first question that always needs to be asked and answered is: Do I have any edge compared to the rest of the traders out there? Now, an edge can come from anywhere; it can come from superior research – most hedge funds will rely upon their ability to get inside the numbers of public reports to understand the companies better than others. On the floor, being at the nexus of trade and seeing the flows of orders and where they were coming from constituted more than enough of an edge to make a living for more than 25 years. Nowadays, I use the experience and insight gained from decades of understanding the markets and pattern recognition to gain my edge.

In talking about the upcoming meeting, here is a case where you not only don’t have any edge, but are working at a definite disadvantage to many others. On November 30th, the decision will be made whether to extend production cuts and if they are, whether they will extend to March 2018 or beyond. If you are thinking about trading in front of the outcome of the meeting, no matter which way you go you will be at a disadvantage. The decision that will be made there,…

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