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Germany Drops Opposition To Russian Oil Embargo

  • Oil prices are on the rise for the fourth consecutive day on renewed Russian supply concerns and potential demand destruction in China. 
  • The EU is reportedly closer to announcing a potential full embargo on Russian oil following news that Germany has dropped its opposition to the measure.
  • Russian oil production could fall by as much as 17 percent this year as Western sanctions weigh on the industry.

Oil prices have risen for a fourth consecutive day with concerns over Russian supply disruptions trumping reduced demand expectations in China.

Brent Crude climbed 1.7 percent to $109.40 per barrel, while WTI Crude moved up 1.03 percent to $106.50 per barrel.

Both contracts are set to finish up on the week, and post their fifth straight monthly gains, buoyed by reports the European Union (EU) will phase out Russian oil imports by the end of the year.

Germany – the bloc’s largest economy – has dropped its opposition to the measure, which is being considered for inclusion in the EU’s possible sixth package of sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine in February.

Prices have been on a volatile journey in the proceeding two months, peaking at 14-year highs at $139 per barrel in early March before plummeting below the $100 milestone later that month as developed economies grappled with the prospect of supply shortages.

The US and UK opting to impose sanctions on Russian energy supplies caused prices to spiral, exacerbated by tight markets amid OPEC+’s persistent failure to raise output production in line with its modest pledged increases of 400,000 extra barrels per day.

With pleas from the West to boost supplies falling on deaf ears, the US and members of the International Energy Agency (IEA) opted to flood the market with 240m barrels – causing prices to tumble as President Joe Biden desperately seeks to contain the cost-of-living crisis ahead of key mid-term elections this year.

The latest resurgence on both major benchmarks has been weighed down by continued Covid-19 lockdowns in China, the world’s biggest crude importer.

The country has shown no signs of easing lockdown measures in Shanghai, despite the impact on its economy and global supply chains.

However, prices are likely to remain elevated regardless, with fears of supply shortages continuing to escalate.

Russian oil production could fall by as much as 17 percent this year, according to documents seen by news agency Reuters, as Western sanctions hurt investments and exports.

Related: German Energy Giant To Pay For Russian Gas In Rubles

Reflecting this reality, Exxon Mobil revealed earlier this week that the Russian unit Exxon Neftegas has declared force majeure for its Sakhalin-1 operations.

The Sakhalin-1 project produces Sokol crude oil off the coast of Sakhalin Island in the Russian Far East, exporting about 273,000 barrels per day, mainly to South Korea, alongside Japan, Australia, Thailand, and the US.

The energy giant revealed last month it would exit about $4 billion in assets and discontinue all its Russia operations, including Sakhalin 1.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ is likely to stick to its existing deal and agree on another small output increase for June when it meets on May 5.

By CityAM

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  • Mamdouh Salameh on April 30 2022 said:
    If this move is intended to reduce Russia’s revenue from oil exports, then the EU will be hugely disappointed. Russia will be benefiting hugely from rising oil prices and earning more revenues even if it sells less oil.

    And if the EU is banking on OPEC+ to raise its production to replace Russian exports, then it will be wasting its time.

    Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
    International Oil Economist
    Visiting Professor of Energy Economics at ESCP Europe Business School, London

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