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Ron Patterson

Ron Patterson

Ron Patterson is a retired computer engineer. He worked in Saudi Arabia for five years, two years at the Ghazlan Power Plant near Ras Tanura…

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Cracks Showing: OPEC November Production Data

Cracks Showing: OPEC November Production Data

OPEC just published its December Monthly Oil Market Report with their crude only production numbers for November.

OPEC October Revisions + November

Total OPEC crude only production was down 390,000 barrels per day but that was after October production was revised up by 190,000 bpd. After revisions, only Iraq and Nigeria showed any increase in November.

The data for all charts below is in thousand barrels per day and is through November 2014.

OPEC 12

OPEC crude only production stands at 30,053,000 barrels per day.

Algeria

Algeria started a slow decline in 2011 but seems to have reached a plateau in 2013.

Related: EIA Oil Production Numbers Show Global Slowdown

Angola

Angola has been on a bumpy plateau for about 4 years now.

Ecuador

Ecuador began to increase production in 2011 and after about a 70,000 bpd increase seems to have reached a peak.

Iran

Nothing very exciting is happening in Iran. Production is holding at 2,750,000 bpd.

Iraq

Iraqi production is holding steady despite ISIS intrusion.

Kuwait

Project Kuwait, Kuwait’s infill drilling program increased production by about 240,000 bpd above their 2008 peak but it seems declines have caught up with them and their production seems to be decreasing.

Kuwait

The largest November decline was in Libya. They were down 249,000 bpd in November.

Nigeria

Nigerian production seems to be holding relatively steady for the past couple of years.

Qatar

I don’t know what’s going on in Qatar but something seems to be happening. Their production dropped by 50,000 bpd in November and that’s a lot for them.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi production fell slightly in November, down 50,000 bpd but that was after October production was revised up by 47,000 bpd.

Related: Oil Price Tumbles After OPEC Releases 2015 Forecast

UAE

The United Arab Emirates had a similar program to Kuwait but now appear to have peaked and started a slight decline. They are down about 100,000 bpd since their peak 4 months ago.

Venezuela

Venezuela’s production has leveled out at about 2,330,000 bpd. This is a little surprising given that their conventional fields are very mature and require heavy investment to maintain current production levels. I have been unable to locate Venezuela’s bitumen production vs. conventional oil production but I believe bitumen or extra heavy production to be somewhere under half a million bpd.

Non-OPEC supply

The OPEC MOMR has an opinion of what non-OPEC nations will produce next year. They believe non-OPEC production will be up 1.36 million barrels per day with the bulk of that increase coming from the US and Canada. That prediction is Total Liquids, not C+C.

In other news the EIA published their Short-Term Energy Outlook Monday. They are predicting that US total liquids will be up next year by 990,000 barrels per day and Canadian total liquids to be u 110,000 bpd. They are predicting non-OPEC total liquids to be up 840,000 bpd. That means they expect non-OPEC liquids, outside US and Canada to be down 260,000 barrels per day.

By Ron Patterson

Source - http://peakoilbarrel.com  

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