X

Sign Up To Our Free Newsletter

Join Now

Thanks for subscribing to our free newsletter!

ERROR

  • 3 minutes Texas forced to have rolling brown outs. Not from downed power line , but because the wind energy turbines are frozen.
  • 7 minutes Scientists Warn That Filling The Sahara With Solar Panels Is A Bad Idea
  • 11 minutes United States LNG Exports Reach Third Place
  • 15 minutes Joe Biden's Presidency
  • 6 hours U.S. Presidential Elections Status - Electoral Votes
  • 2 hours Interest article about windmills and waterwheels in Europe
  • 15 hours Retired RAF pilot wins legal challenge over a wind farm
  • 23 hours Speaker Pelosi, "Tear Down This Wall"
  • 1 day NYT:  The Supreme Court’s order (Re:  Trump’s tax returns) set in motion a series of events that could lead to the startling possibility of a criminal trial of a former U.S. president
  • 13 hours Chance for (Saudi)Arabian peninsula having giant onshore Gas too?
  • 1 day Disaster looming in UK offshore wind power
  • 2 days Wednesday Nikki Haley reached out to Trump for meeting at Mar-a-lago. Trump said No ! You blew it Nikki . . .
  • 10 hours “Cushing Oil Inventories Are Soaring Again” By Tsvetana Paraskova
  • 2 days Scientist clone endangered Black Footed Ferret from Ferret that died 30 years ago . It's a 100% exact genomic match.
How India’s Hunger For Oil Could Transform The Middle East

How India’s Hunger For Oil Could Transform The Middle East

India’s rapidly growing oil demand…

Shell Says Its Oil Production Has Peaked

Shell Says Its Oil Production Has Peaked

Anglo-Dutch supermajor Shell has reaffirmed…

Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as iNVEZZ and SeeNews. 

More Info

Premium Content

Argus: Oil Demand Will Not Plunge Because Of The Energy Transition

The energy transition and the growing share of electrification of transportation will not lead to a fast decline in global oil demand—any drop in consumption will be very gradual, Argus analysts said at the Argus Crude forum during the IPWeek conference on Tuesday.  

The trend of world oil demand will be a “tug of war” between increased efforts at green recovery and electrification in Europe, the United States, and China to some extent, versus growing oil demand amid strong economic growth in emerging economies, according to Euan Craik, global head of oil at Argus.

Argus expects global oil demand to be just below 100 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2040—roughly the level of consumption in the last ‘normal’ year before the pandemic, 2019.

“It is worth noting that this is really in line with the levels we just came from in 2019, so it will be a very slow decline in oil demand even as new forms of energy come on stream and account for more of the pool,” Argus’ Craik said at the forum.

OPEC, for example, also sees demand growing in the next nearly two decades. OPEC expects global oil demand will exceed the pre-pandemic levels in 2022 and grow steadily until the late 2030s, when it will begin to plateau, the cartel said in October 2020, in a major shift in its forecast that put a timeline to peak oil demand. Related: U.S. Shale’s Struggles Will Be Help OPEC Stabilize Oil Prices

IHS Markit estimates that global oil demand for gasoline and diesel from light-duty vehicles peaked in 2019 at 29.1 million bpd. However, oil will still be the dominant energy source for transportation for years to come due to the sheer size of the global car fleet and the amount of time it takes for it to turn over, according to IHS Markit. The analysts estimate that electricity use in road transportation had only displaced about 370,000 bpd of oil demand—0.4 percent of world oil consumption—by 2020. This will rise to 1.5 million bpd by 2025.

“Increased electrification, along with rising fuel economy and emissions standards, will play an important role in the plateau and then decline of world oil demand that IHS Markit expects to emerge at some point over the next 10-15 years in its base case outlook,” it said last week.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:


Download The Free Oilprice App Today

Back to homepage





Leave a comment

Leave a comment




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News