• 11 hours Russia Approves Profit-Based Oil Tax For 2019
  • 15 hours French Strike Disrupts Exxon And Total’s Oil Product Shipments
  • 17 hours Kurdistan’s Oil Exports Still Below Pre-Conflict Levels
  • 19 hours Oil Production Cuts Taking A Toll On Russia’s Economy
  • 21 hours Aramco In Talks With Chinese Petrochemical Producers
  • 22 hours Federal Judge Grants Go-Ahead On Keystone XL Lawsuit
  • 23 hours Maduro Names Chavez’ Cousin As Citgo Boss
  • 1 day Bidding Action Heats Up In UK’s Continental Shelf
  • 1 day Keystone Pipeline Restart Still Unknown
  • 2 days UK Offers North Sea Oil Producers Tax Relief To Boost Investment
  • 2 days Iraq Wants To Build Gas Pipeline To Kuwait In Blow To Shell
  • 2 days Trader Trafigura Raises Share Of Oil Purchases From State Firms
  • 2 days German Energy Group Uniper Rejects $9B Finnish Takeover Bid
  • 2 days Total Could Lose Big If It Pulls Out Of South Pars Deal
  • 2 days Dakota Watchdog Warns It Could Revoke Keystone XL Approval
  • 3 days Oil Prices Rise After API Reports Major Crude Draw
  • 3 days Citgo President And 5 VPs Arrested On Embezzlement Charges
  • 3 days Gazprom Speaks Out Against OPEC Production Cut Extension
  • 3 days Statoil Looks To Lighter Oil To Boost Profitability
  • 3 days Oil Billionaire Becomes Wind Energy’s Top Influencer
  • 3 days Transneft Warns Urals Oil Quality Reaching Critical Levels
  • 3 days Whitefish Energy Suspends Work In Puerto Rico
  • 3 days U.S. Authorities Arrest Two On Major Energy Corruption Scheme
  • 3 days Thanksgiving Gas Prices At 3-Year High
  • 4 days Iraq’s Giant Majnoon Oilfield Attracts Attention Of Supermajors
  • 4 days South Iraq Oil Exports Close To Record High To Offset Kirkuk Drop
  • 4 days Iraqi Forces Find Mass Graves In Oil Wells Near Kirkuk
  • 4 days Chevron Joint Venture Signs $1.7B Oil, Gas Deal In Nigeria
  • 4 days Iraq Steps In To Offset Falling Venezuela Oil Production
  • 4 days ConocoPhillips Sets Price Ceiling For New Projects
  • 6 days Shell Oil Trading Head Steps Down After 29 Years
  • 7 days Higher Oil Prices Reduce North American Oil Bankruptcies
  • 7 days Statoil To Boost Exploration Drilling Offshore Norway In 2018
  • 7 days $1.6 Billion Canadian-US Hydropower Project Approved
  • 7 days Venezuela Officially In Default
  • 7 days Iran Prepares To Export LNG To Boost Trade Relations
  • 7 days Keystone Pipeline Leaks 5,000 Barrels Into Farmland
  • 7 days Saudi Oil Minister: Markets Will Not Rebalance By March
  • 7 days Obscure Dutch Firm Wins Venezuelan Oil Block As Debt Tensions Mount
  • 8 days Rosneft Announces Completion Of World’s Longest Well

Bright News In Dark Times For The Coal Sector

Bright News In Dark Times For The Coal Sector

As I discussed last week, there’s been carnage in the coal sector of late. With major producers like Peabody Energy teetering on the brink of bankruptcy.

Reading the headlines, it appears the world has given up on coal as a commodity. Which made it all the more surprising the past week to see a major coal-positive announcement emerging from Southeast Asia.

That came from Vietnam. Where the government said it is going to require a massive amount of new coal supply — very quickly.

Platts broke the story that an official report last Friday projects Vietnam’s coal demand to rise by over 80 percent by 2020. With consumption expected to hit 86.4 million tonnes per year — up from 47.5 million tonnes demand estimated for 2016. Related: What Happens When Oil Hits $50?

That’s an astonishing rise — equating to nearly 40 million tonnes of additional yearly demand. And vastly exceeding Vietnam’s domestic production, which ran just 41.5 million tonnes in 2015.

Officials are expecting domestic coal output to rise slightly — to between 47 and 50 million tonnes per year by 2020. But even with such growth, Vietnam would still be looking at imports of 35 to 40 million tonnes per year to meet overall demand. Related: The Current Oil Price Rally Is Reaching Its Limits

Such a level of coal imports would be a massive increase from today. In 2015, Vietnam imported just 7 million tonnes of coal (although that figure was up 125 percent from 2014).

All of which suggests we could see imports here rise by over 30 million tonnes annually over the next few years. That’s not quite on the level of super-importers like China, Japan or India — but it would be very significant for the global market. Related: New Biofuels Alternative Could Upend Oil Markets

Of course, these are only forecasts at this point. But the scale of projected demand increases suggests that a major trend toward increased coal use is in motion across Vietnam. Whatever the final numbers, it appears assured the country is going to rocket to importance in terms of global coal buying.

Add that to rapidly rising coal demand in nearby nations like the Philippines, and supply could get tight fast in this part of the world. Watch for more data on growing demand and imports in this X-factor locale.

Here’s to being down but not out

By Dave Forest

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:




Back to homepage


Leave a comment
  • Steve Leary on March 24 2016 said:
    This may not be the full story on coal in Vietnam, since in January the Vietnamese Government announced it was to review its Coal Policy and that a full announcement would be made, I think, in June

    Here is one news item on this: 'Vietnam Plans Move Away From Coal' (Clean Technica, 28/1/16) @ http://cleantechnica.com/2016/01/28/vietnam-plans-move-away-coal/?utm_content=bufferfe373&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Leave a comment




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News