• 4 minutes Tariffs to derail $83.7 Billion Chinese Investment in West Virginia
  • 9 minutes Battle for Oil Port: East Libya Forces In Full Control At Ras Lanuf
  • 17 minutes Kaplan Says Rising Oil Prices Won't Hurt US Economy
  • 5 hours Saudi Arabia turns to solar
  • 16 hours Kaplan Says Rising Oil Prices Won't Hurt US Economy
  • 10 hours Could oil demand collapse rapidly? Yup, sure could.
  • 4 hours Corruption On The Top: Netanyahu's Wife Charged With Misuse of Public Funds for Meals
  • 10 mins Battle for Oil Port: East Libya Forces In Full Control At Ras Lanuf
  • 1 day Tariffs to derail $83.7 Billion Chinese Investment in West Virginia
  • 5 mins Russia's Energy Minister says Oil Prices Balanced at $75, so Wants to Increase OPEC + Russia Oil by 1.5 mbpd
  • 10 hours Gazprom Exports to EU Hit Record
  • 6 hours U.S. Withdraws From U.N. Human Rights Council
  • 11 hours OPEC Meeting Could End Without Decision - Irony Note Added from OPEC Children's Book
  • 15 hours China’s Plastic Waste Ban Will Leave 111 Million Tons of Trash With Nowhere To Go
  • 9 hours "The Gasoline Car Is a Car With a Future"
  • 8 hours What If Canada Had Wind and Not Oilsands?
  • 4 hours EU Confirms Trade Retaliation Measures vs. U.S. To Take Effect on June 22
  • 21 hours EVs Could Help Coal Demand
  • 9 hours Sell out now or hold on?

Breaking News:

Saudi Aramco Clears Another IPO Hurdle

Alt Text

Is Russia Helping North Korea Export Coal?

Three Western European intelligence sources…

Alt Text

Unexpected Move From China Boosts Coal Prices

After falling for a couple…

Alt Text

Why China’s Shale Boom Is Struggling

China’s shale revolution has received…

Dave Forest

Dave Forest

Dave is Managing Geologist of the Pierce Points Daily E-Letter.

More Info

Trending Discussions

Bright News In Dark Times For The Coal Sector

Bright News In Dark Times For The Coal Sector

As I discussed last week, there’s been carnage in the coal sector of late. With major producers like Peabody Energy teetering on the brink of bankruptcy.

Reading the headlines, it appears the world has given up on coal as a commodity. Which made it all the more surprising the past week to see a major coal-positive announcement emerging from Southeast Asia.

That came from Vietnam. Where the government said it is going to require a massive amount of new coal supply — very quickly.

Platts broke the story that an official report last Friday projects Vietnam’s coal demand to rise by over 80 percent by 2020. With consumption expected to hit 86.4 million tonnes per year — up from 47.5 million tonnes demand estimated for 2016. Related: What Happens When Oil Hits $50?

That’s an astonishing rise — equating to nearly 40 million tonnes of additional yearly demand. And vastly exceeding Vietnam’s domestic production, which ran just 41.5 million tonnes in 2015.

Officials are expecting domestic coal output to rise slightly — to between 47 and 50 million tonnes per year by 2020. But even with such growth, Vietnam would still be looking at imports of 35 to 40 million tonnes per year to meet overall demand. Related: The Current Oil Price Rally Is Reaching Its Limits

Such a level of coal imports would be a massive increase from today. In 2015, Vietnam imported just 7 million tonnes of coal (although that figure was up 125 percent from 2014).

All of which suggests we could see imports here rise by over 30 million tonnes annually over the next few years. That’s not quite on the level of super-importers like China, Japan or India — but it would be very significant for the global market. Related: New Biofuels Alternative Could Upend Oil Markets

Of course, these are only forecasts at this point. But the scale of projected demand increases suggests that a major trend toward increased coal use is in motion across Vietnam. Whatever the final numbers, it appears assured the country is going to rocket to importance in terms of global coal buying.

Add that to rapidly rising coal demand in nearby nations like the Philippines, and supply could get tight fast in this part of the world. Watch for more data on growing demand and imports in this X-factor locale.

Here’s to being down but not out

By Dave Forest

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:




Back to homepage

Trending Discussions


Leave a comment
  • Steve Leary on March 24 2016 said:
    This may not be the full story on coal in Vietnam, since in January the Vietnamese Government announced it was to review its Coal Policy and that a full announcement would be made, I think, in June

    Here is one news item on this: 'Vietnam Plans Move Away From Coal' (Clean Technica, 28/1/16) @ http://cleantechnica.com/2016/01/28/vietnam-plans-move-away-coal/?utm_content=bufferfe373&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Leave a comment




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News