• 3 minutes 2nd Annual Great Oil Price Prediction Challenge of 2019
  • 6 minutes "Leaked" request by some Democrats that they were asking Nancy to coordinate censure instead of impeachment.
  • 11 minutes Trump's China Strategy: Death By a Thousand Paper Cuts
  • 14 minutes Democrats through impeachment process helped Trump go out of China deal conundrum. Now Trump can safely postpone deal till after November 2020 elections
  • 33 mins Shale Oil Fiasco
  • 5 hours Everything you think you know about economics is WRONG!
  • 6 hours USA v China. Which is 'best'?
  • 18 hours Wallstreet's "acid test" for Democrat Presidential candidate to receive their financial support . . . Support "Carried Interest"
  • 5 hours Global Debt Worries. How Will This End?
  • 14 hours My interview on PDVSA Petrocaribe and corruption
  • 4 hours Quotes from the Widowmaker
  • 3 hours Judiciary impeachment: Congressman says Sean Misko, Abigail Grace and unnamed 3rd (Ciaramella) need to testify.
  • 1 day Wonders of US Shale: US Shale Benefits: The U.S. leads global petroleum and natural gas production with record growth in 2018
  • 3 hours Tesla Launches Faster Third Generation Supercharger
  • 1 day Petroleum Industry Domain Names
Alt Text

Is China’s “Clean Coal” A Lie?

China is launching a new…

Alt Text

Cloud Peak On Brink Of Collapse After Bad Coal Bet

The U.S. power sector’s pivot…

Dave Forest

Dave Forest

Dave is Managing Geologist of the Pierce Points Daily E-Letter.

More Info

Premium Content

Bright News In Dark Times For The Coal Sector

As I discussed last week, there’s been carnage in the coal sector of late. With major producers like Peabody Energy teetering on the brink of bankruptcy.

Reading the headlines, it appears the world has given up on coal as a commodity. Which made it all the more surprising the past week to see a major coal-positive announcement emerging from Southeast Asia.

That came from Vietnam. Where the government said it is going to require a massive amount of new coal supply — very quickly.

Platts broke the story that an official report last Friday projects Vietnam’s coal demand to rise by over 80 percent by 2020. With consumption expected to hit 86.4 million tonnes per year — up from 47.5 million tonnes demand estimated for 2016. Related: What Happens When Oil Hits $50?

That’s an astonishing rise — equating to nearly 40 million tonnes of additional yearly demand. And vastly exceeding Vietnam’s domestic production, which ran just 41.5 million tonnes in 2015.

Officials are expecting domestic coal output to rise slightly — to between 47 and 50 million tonnes per year by 2020. But even with such growth, Vietnam would still be looking at imports of 35 to 40 million tonnes per year to meet overall demand. Related: The Current Oil Price Rally Is Reaching Its Limits

Such a level of coal imports would be a massive increase from today. In 2015, Vietnam imported just 7 million tonnes of coal (although that figure was up 125 percent from 2014).

All of which suggests we could see imports here rise by over 30 million tonnes annually over the next few years. That’s not quite on the level of super-importers like China, Japan or India — but it would be very significant for the global market. Related: New Biofuels Alternative Could Upend Oil Markets

Of course, these are only forecasts at this point. But the scale of projected demand increases suggests that a major trend toward increased coal use is in motion across Vietnam. Whatever the final numbers, it appears assured the country is going to rocket to importance in terms of global coal buying.

Add that to rapidly rising coal demand in nearby nations like the Philippines, and supply could get tight fast in this part of the world. Watch for more data on growing demand and imports in this X-factor locale.

Here’s to being down but not out

By Dave Forest

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:




Download The Free Oilprice App Today

Back to homepage



Leave a comment
  • Steve Leary on March 24 2016 said:
    This may not be the full story on coal in Vietnam, since in January the Vietnamese Government announced it was to review its Coal Policy and that a full announcement would be made, I think, in June

    Here is one news item on this: 'Vietnam Plans Move Away From Coal' (Clean Technica, 28/1/16) @ http://cleantechnica.com/2016/01/28/vietnam-plans-move-away-coal/?utm_content=bufferfe373&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Leave a comment




Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News
Download on the App Store Get it on Google Play