Longtime, regular readers with the memory of an elephant may remember an article that I wrote in May of last year. That piece suggested that even though solar power stocks had fairly consistently failed to live up to expectations, the ridiculously low valuations at the time made a couple of them worth buying. One of those suggestions was Canadian Solar (CSIQ).
In that article, as is my wont, I also suggested parameters for the trade; a stop loss just below $20, which was never reached, and a price target of $37, which, as it happens, was actually about 10 percent away from the top and represented a profit of over 50% in just over three months. Most of the time, when a trade idea is that successful the sensible thing to do is to walk away from the stock and never look at it again. In this case, though I will make an exception.
There are two basic reasons for this exception, one fundamental and one technical.
As always, fundamentals come first. Part of the reason for the initial pick was that it seemed that CSIQ was seriously undervalued for a company with good growth prospects. Even my optimistic expectations for growth, however, have since been proven to be way too pessimistic. Over the last year, Canadian Solar have reported revenues that represent an 89% annual growth rate! As is usually the case in this industry, margins have been tight, but growth like that cannot, you would think, be ignored by the market.
You would think that, but you would…