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Technical Review for the Energy Markets - 20th February 2013

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Posted on Wed, 20 February 2013 15:02 | 0

WTI Crude Oil did hold just above 95.06/94.97 & headed higher as predicted. We expected a high at 96.90/97.00 and have so far topped out at 96.81. As stated yesterday, we are looking to sell in to shorts here with a stop above 97.50. Go with a break higher looking for a retest of Feb highs at 98.10/24.

We have support at 96.32/28 & we could see a bounce off here if tested this morning. However below here look for 96.00/90 then not much to stop a return to the week’s low at 95.35/20. 

WTI Crude Daily Chart 20.02.13
Click to enlarge.


Brent has failed to get back through 117.60/40 resistance as the outlook weakens. If we do push higher today look for 118.04/15. Very possible we fail here again today but on a break we have a gap to close & tough resistance at 118.42/51. If we manage to keep pushing higher we hit Feb highs at 119.12/17 which are expected to hold on a retest.

The outlook remains weak so below 117.60/40 look for 117.05/116.95 with failure here targeting 116.66/61 then last week’s low at 116.28/19. Good chance of a low here again today with further strong support just below at 115.88/83.

Brent Daily Chart 20.02.13
Click to enlarge.


Gasoil is hovering below 1004 after we just held 1000/999 support yesterday as hoped. However a break lower is more likely today so any longs need a stop & reverse in to shorts below 996 for 991/989 as the next target & support. There is scope for 981/979 perhaps later in the week which would offer an excellent buying opportunity with a low for the correction expected here. 

Resistance is at 1004/05 but above 1006 look for 1010/11 then 1015 with 1018 likely to cap any rally this week.

Gasoil Daily Chart 20.02.13
Click to enlarge.


Natural Gas caught us out with a break through 3.200/202 & then 3.245/250 as we reached 3.285. There is resistance here so we could top out but a break higher cannot be ruled out for a test of 3.320/328. This is the short term 61.8% & 38.2% Fibonacci level as well as last week’s high, but also 21 day & 100 week moving average resistance & with the market over bought in the short term this should cap today. However a break could target 3.383 next. 

Strong support at 3.325 today but below here risks 3.20 then little to stop a retest of 3.140/125. Just below at 3.010/085 is 200 day MA, daily & weekly Fibonacci support & mid Jan lows so we should bottom here. Worth exiting shorts & trying longs with a stop below 3.050.      

Natural Gas Daily Chart 20.02.13
Click to enlarge.


March RBOB could not hold the break of last week’s high at 316.39 & tested 310 support which was predicted to provide a floor & an excellent buying opportunity. This worked nicely as we bottomed at 310.20.  Our first obstacle today is 312.50 then 313.63/313.75 but above here we can try for 316.39/316.91 resistance. A break of 317 then targets 320.50.

Support at 310.20/309.78 could hold again today but below here the 306/305 band is an excellent buying opportunity. 

RBOB Daily Chart 20.02.13
Click to enlarge.

By. Jason Sen


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