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Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana is a writer for the U.S.-based Divergente LLC consulting firm with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as iNVEZZ and…

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As Compliance Slips, OPEC Decides To 'Reconsider' Output Deal

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While the oil market is focused on the U.S. inventory draws and crude oil production, OPEC is not letting investors forget the cartel’s jawboning weapon—the ‘deeper/longer cuts’ narrative.

Kuwait’s oil minister Essam al-Marzouq said on Monday that OPEC’s November meeting would discuss the fate of the current agreement--whether it would extend the cuts further or decide to terminate it.

“At our next meeting at the end of November...the most important items will concern the fate of the agreement to extend or terminate the production cut,” Essam al-Marzouq said in an interview with Kuwait TV on Monday, as carried by Reuters.

Meanwhile, OPEC’s committee set up to monitor compliance with the cuts is meeting in Vienna to discuss slipping conformity with the pledges. Citing two sources in the know, Reuters reports that estimates are for a combined compliance of 94 percent for July.

At the July meeting in Russia, OPEC said that the OPEC and non-OPEC signatories to the output cut deal reached a 98-percent compliance in June.

However, according to the IEA, OPEC compliance slipped to 75 percent in July, from 77 percent in June. Compliance within the non-OPEC group of producers party to the cuts was 67 percent. Combined, the 22 producers that have pledged to cut production are overproducing a total of 470,000 bpd, according to the IEA. Related: The Latest Red Flag For U.S. Shale

Analysts think that compliance will continue to drop as the lower-than-expected oil prices and the slower-than-anticipated market rebalancing would discourage OPEC members from keeping cutting.

The July monthly Reuters poll showed that 33 economists and analysts lowered yet again—for a sixth consecutive month—their oil price forecasts for 2017 and 2018, as the slower-than-expected rate of oil market rebalancing puts an increasing amount of pressure on OPEC’s resolve to stick with the cuts.

According to JP Morgan, OPEC’s compliance with the output cuts will continue to slip in the second half this year, despite recent rhetoric reiterating the cartel members’ commitment to stick to the production quotas.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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  • John Brown on August 23 2017 said:
    The more OPEC tries to cut to artificially hold up prices the more they boost non-OPEC production, and help sustain the move to non-carbon renewable energy. The more production they idle to keep prices idle the more they increase cheating. I have to handle it to the OIL and Financial Industries that support the oil industry. Its not just OPEC scrambling to prop up oil prices its everyone involved in all the support industries that all benefit from higher prices.
    So there is a glut of oil and gas on the market. OPEC has increasingly idled more production to keep prices higher which has stimulated more non-OPEC production. So the glut is still here, global production is increasing, and the excess production capacity is huge, and also growing. I love the way the industry can take that picture, and get everyone to focus on some production disruption in Nigeria, or some potential problem with Venezuela, or on a few weeks of reduced U.S. oil inventories to keep prices up, while meanwhile the glut grows and excess capacity grows, and cheating grows.

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