• 3 minutes Australian power prices go insane
  • 7 minutes Wind droughts
  • 11 minutes  What Russia has reached over three months diplomatic and military pressure on West ?
  • 3 hours Is Europe heading for winter of discontent with extensive gas shortages?
  • 2 hours What-If - Russia decided to take out the Saudi and Kuwait oilfields
  • 7 hours "As the Earth Cools, the Climate Change Hoax Heats Up" by Michelle Edwards
  • 7 hours "Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Grinding Toward Summer Highs Despite Huge Short Interest" by James Hyerczyk & REUTERS on NatGas
  • 4 hours 87,000 new IRS agents, higher taxes, and a massive green energy slush fund... "Here Are The Winners And Losers In The 'Inflation Reduction Act'"-ZeroHedge
  • 2 days "How to Calculate Your Individual ESG Score to ensure that your Digital ID 'benefits' and money are accessible"
  • 3 days "Mexico Plans to Become an Export Hub With US-Drilled Natural Gas" - Bloomberg - (See image)
  • 4 hours The United Nations' AGENDA 2030 - The vision for One World Governance ...an article by the famous Dr Robert Malone
  • 10 hours PROFOUND ! "Russian Ruble relaunched linked to Gold and Commodities" by the famous Ronan Manly -- (NOTE the censorship by the MultiPolar New World Order of The Great Reset))

Why The Market Doesn’t Need Much More OPEC+ Oil

While the Biden Administration calls on OPEC+ to boost production more than planned, the major oil forecasters scaled back their outlook on how much OPEC+ crude the market would need.

Earlier this week, the White House called on the OPEC+ group to increase oil production more than they had planned in order to tame rising gasoline prices that could derail the global economic recovery.

However, also this week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the International Energy Agency (IEA), and OPEC itself revised down their forecasts for the call on OPEC crude this year and next, Julian Lee of Bloomberg News notes.

In the August Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the EIA estimated that OPEC crude oil production would remain lower than calls on OPEC through the third quarter and fourth quarter of 2021. This quarter, demand for OPEC’s oil will exceed production by 1.0 million bpd. However, this difference will drop to 300,000 in the fourth quarter.

“[B]eginning in 1Q22, we forecast OPEC crude oil production will outpace calls on OPEC production, contributing to increased crude oil inventories and lower crude oil prices,” the EIA said on Tuesday, a day before the U.S. Administration urged OPEC+ to open the taps.

“OPEC+ leaders are expected to reconvene in December 2021, when we expect some adjustments to their curtailment plan,” the EIA said.

The IEA, for its part, warned on Thursday that new mobility restrictions in Asia to fight the Delta variant were set to slow global oil demand growth in the second half of 2021, although it left its full-year demand growth estimates largely unchanged.

“The immediate boost from OPEC+ is colliding with slower demand growth and higher output from outside the alliance, stamping out lingering suggestions of a near-term supply crunch or super cycle,” the IEA said in its closely-watched Oil Market Report published on Thursday.

Even after the deal from last month, OPEC+ is estimated to pump about 200,000 bpd below the call on its crude in Q4 2021, compared with a deficit of up to 2 million bpd expected before the July agreement.

“But the scale could tilt back to surplus in 2022 if OPEC+ continues to undo its cuts and producers not taking part in the deal ramp up in response to higher prices,” said the IEA.

OPEC itself revised down demand for its crude in its monthly report on Thursday. Demand for OPEC crude in 2021 was revised down by 200,000 bpd from last month’s forecast to stand at 27.4 million bpd. Demand for OPEC crude next year was revised down by 1.1 million bpd from the previous month’s assessment to stand at 27.6 million bpd.  

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:

Join the discussion | Back to homepage

Leave a comment
  • Mamdouh Salameh on August 13 2021 said:
    OPEC+ understands the global oil market and the balance between supply and demand better than any oil forecasters. Therefore, it will adjust its production to ensure stability of the global oil market and a level of crude prices that supports the economies of its members without prejudicing the global economy.

    And while a resurgent COVID particularly in Asia has raised concerns about global oil demand, the impact will be very transient as a result of the robust fundamentals of the global economy and global oil demand. Both demand and prices will very soon resume their surge particularly with the availability of billions of vaccines around the world.

    I particularly disregard the IEA’s projections as the IEA is hell-bent on trying to depress oil prices for the benefit of its members (overwhelmingly Western) and the wishes of its masters in Washington.

    Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
    International Oil Economist
    Visiting Professor of Energy Economics at ESCP Europe Business School, London

Leave a comment

EXXON Mobil -0.35
Open57.81 Trading Vol.6.96M Previous Vol.241.7B
BUY 57.15
Sell 57.00
Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News