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Morgan Stanley Hikes Its Summer Oil Price Forecast to $94

Morgan Stanley Hikes Its Summer Oil Price Forecast to $94

Geopolitical tensions and tighter supply…

Ukrainian Drone Attacks Drag Russia’s Refining Rates Down by 380,000 Bpd

Russia’s oil refinery rates have slumped this month by 380,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared to December levels as several refineries are under repairs after being hit by Ukrainian drone attacks.

Russian refinery rates slipped to 5.16 million bpd in the second week of February, a source familiar with industry data told Bloomberg on Monday.

The decline compared to the December average – before Ukraine started targeting refineries with drones – has been nearly 380,000 bpd, per Bloomberg’s calculations.  

So far in February, Russia’s refineries are estimated to have been processing around 5.21 million bpd of crude, which is the lowest refinery run rates since early October 2023, according to Bloomberg.

Russia’s daily crude oil processing dropped by 4% in the first half of February compared to the first half of January, and by 8.6% versus the first half of February 2023, data from Reuters’ sources and calculations showed last week. 

The drop in refinery runs comes as Russian refineries and other energy infrastructure have been targeted and hit by Ukrainian drone attacks in recent weeks.

Ukraine’s security services have been hitting with drones Russian refineries, especially those in southern Russia, in attacks that have intensified since the beginning of the year.

A Ukrainian source told Reuters last month that the SBU security service “strikes deep into the Russian Federation and continues attacks on facilities which are not only important for the Russian economy, but also provide fuel for the enemy troops.”

The Ukrainian attacks and the damages they caused to Russian refineries have reduced Russia’s capability to process crude, which has the potential to raise crude volumes shipped out of Russia but has decreased diesel and other product exports.

The lower supply of middle distillates, which include diesel, from Russia has been tightening the global product market in recent weeks, on top of trade flow shifts as tankers avoid the Red Sea/Suez Canal route due to the Houthi attacks on commercial vessels.   


By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

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