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While U.S. crude oil production is set to continue to rise, energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in America are expected to have dropped last year and to continue falling through 2021, the Energy Information Administration said on Friday.
The declines in CO2 emissions last year and in the two coming years are driven by the less carbon intensive power generation across the U.S. where more efficient natural gas-fired plants are replacing coal-fired power plants, and by the rise of electricity generation from renewable energy sources, especially wind and solar power, the EIA said.
In 2018, higher natural gas consumption due to extreme summer and winter weather and increased petroleum demand in transportation in a strong economy resulted in the United States reversing in that year several years of CO2 emissions reductions in the energy sector, the EIA said in November. The emissions increase in 2018 was the first such annual rise since 2014, EIA said.
But in 2019, the U.S. energy related CO2 emissions fell by 2.1 percent year on year, the EIA said today. Energy-related CO2 emissions are expected to continue their annual declines into 2020 and 2021, with a drop by 2.0 percent this year and a fall of 1.5 percent next year.
“If this forecast holds, energy-related CO2 emissions will have declined in 7 of the 10 years from 2012 to 2021,” the EIA said.
While energy-related CO2 emissions are set to decline through 2021, U.S. crude oil production is expected to continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace than before, the EIA said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) this week.
In the January 2020 outlook, the EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 12.2 million bpd last year, a rise by 1.3 million bpd compared to 2018. This year, EIA sees U.S. crude oil production averaging 13.3 million bpd, while the average American crude oil production will be 13.7 million bpd in 2021, with the Permian accounting for most of the growth.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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Tsvetana is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as iNVEZZ and SeeNews.