• 4 minutes England Running Out of Water?
  • 7 minutes Trump to Make Allies Pay More to Host US Bases
  • 10 minutes U.S. Shale Output may Start Dropping Next Year
  • 14 minutes Washington Eyes Crackdown On OPEC
  • 6 hours Russian Effect: U.S. May Soon Pause Preparations For Delivering F-35s To Turkey
  • 5 hours Poll: Will Renewables Save the World?
  • 5 hours New Rebate For EVs in Canada
  • 5 hours China's Expansion: Italy Leads Europe Into China’s Embrace
  • 45 mins One Last Warning For The U.S. Shale Patch
  • 24 mins Chile Tests Floating Solar Farm
  • 7 hours Biomass, Ethanol No Longer Green
  • 4 hours Trump Tariffs On China Working
  • 8 hours The Political Debacle: Brexit delayed
  • 22 hours No Mercy: EU Fines Google $1.7 billion For Abusing Online Ads Market
  • 3 hours 3 Pipes: EPIC 900K, CACTUS II 670K, GREY OAKS 800K
  • 14 hours Boeing Faces Safety Questions After Second 737 Crash In Five Months
  • 20 hours Oil-sands recovery by solvents has started on a trial basis; first loads now shipped.
Oil Price Rally Hits Resistance

Oil Price Rally Hits Resistance

Oil prices are holding their…

Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana is a writer for the U.S.-based Divergente LLC consulting firm with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as iNVEZZ and…

More Info

UBS Sees OPEC Production Falling This Month

Rigs

Analysts at UBS warned on Tuesday that OPEC’s crude oil production may fall this month—after having hit an eight-year-high in July—as attacks and growing unrest in Iraq, Nigeria and Libya may reduce their respective outputs.

In July, OPEC’s output went up by 150,000 b/d to 33.39 million b/d, as Saudi Arabia increased production to all-time highs and Iraq pumped more, figures by the International Energy Agency (IEA) show. OPEC itself said last week that Saudi Arabia had reported production of 10.67 million barrels per day, up by some 120,000 bpd on the prior month.

Looking to August data, UBS now expects Iraq’s production to decline after Islamic State fighters killed five people in an attack on the largest oil field in Kirkuk, Bai Hassan.

UBS analysts also see Nigeria’s production down this month, with no respite in militant attacks there.

Over the weekend, Petroleum Minister Ibe Kachikwu said that Nigeria’s losses in daily oil production due to militant attacks had hit 900,000 barrels.

UBS is not optimistic on increased Libyan output either, despite the de facto agreement to reopen key ports in the east. Earlier this month, Libyan militia Operation Dignity attacked the Zueitina oil terminal near Benghazi. The attack was repelled by Petroleum Facilities Guard forces, which are another militia operating in the country.

Related: What The Fall Of OPEC Means For Global Oil Markets

Since OPEC said it would hold an informal meeting on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum in Algeria on September 26-28, rumors and commentaries have been piling up on whether the cartel would take any action to support crude prices and agree on some sort of production freeze.

UBS sides here with the majority of analysts who do not expect a production freeze.

“Our view is that agreeing a freeze is likely just as difficult as in April…it's arguably not as needed … and likely has little effect on actual market balances, with most of OPEC running flat out and Saudi output seasonally ramping down by September after peak summer demand,” CNBC quoted UBS analyst Jon Rigby as saying in a report.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:



Join the discussion | Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment

Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News