The EV Revolution Is Threatening Long-Term Oil Demand Growth

Oil demand is probably near its peak, because governments in rich countries want to lower carbon dioxide production. Americans hold on to gasoline vehicles because many commute long distances, and electric cars were much more expensive than gasoline powered ones.
As the price of electric vehicles begins to fall, and eventually becomes cheaper than gasoline powered ones, demand for ICE engine powered cars will begin to drop at an accelerating rate.
The trend to electric cars will eventually spread even to less developed countries, after batteries get cheaper and cheaper.
The beauty of an electric car is its very low maintenance, when compared to an ICE powered vehicle. A well made electric car could last for decades where salt is not frequently spread on the roads during the winter.
Petroleum will always be valuable for powering jets, and big things like railroad locomotives, farm machines, ships, and construction equipment. Batteries will never match the energy density and convenience of diesel fuel, gasoline, and kerosene. There will never be electric rockets launching satellites. No lumberjack would chose an electric chain saw over a gasoline powered one. And as long as gasoline cars and trucks are available and legal, some people will purchase them, because they can be refueled instantly.
Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles might become popular. But if you have a place to charge your vehicle off street, you would want to go electric, because an electric vehicle is far simpler than one containing a fuel cell. Hydrogen can cause many problems with metals, and it is explosive. I would never put high pressure hydrogen tanks in my garage. I have got a bunch of propane tanks for the generators in there, but it is stored at low pressure, compared to hydrogen in a car. And propane does not cause hydrogen embrittlement of metals. You can store propane is a steel tank inside a building for decades.
We lucked out that lithium batteries came along well before the petroleum began to run out. Running out of oil and gas before lithium batteries were invented would have been catastrophic. Billions of people would have starved to death without some replacement for the energy in oil.

The energy transition will happen faster than the vehicle transmission, because new vehicles tend to travel further than average and EVs in turn travel further than ICE vehicles because the marginal cost of operation of the EV is lower.
Thus the transition will be quickest in ride-share, taxis, delivery vans and high mileage service vehicles where the savings in operational costs offset the higher capital cost the quickest. So by the time half the vehicles on the road are electric some 60-65% of the miles will be electric.
It is possibly the case that some high mileage applications like long distance trucking might take longer. However the interaction between improvements in energy density of batteries, regulations limiting driving hours and megawatt+ chargers allowing trucks to recharge during compulsory rest stops and while loading/unloading will mean little practical limit on truck range.
The lower operating and maintenance costs combined with increased operator comfort and ever-tightening noise and exhaust pollution might see a trucking transition happen extremely rapidly just like smart phones overtook feature phones. It is not impossible to imagine that after a slow buildup, once electric trucks reach 1-2% market penetration they will transition to 50% within 5 years.