• 1 day PDVSA Booted From Caribbean Terminal Over Unpaid Bills
  • 1 day Russia Warns Ukraine Against Recovering Oil Off The Coast Of Crimea
  • 1 day Syrian Rebels Relinquish Control Of Major Gas Field
  • 1 day Schlumberger Warns Of Moderating Investment In North America
  • 1 day Oil Prices Set For Weekly Loss As Profit Taking Trumps Mideast Tensions
  • 1 day Energy Regulators Look To Guard Grid From Cyberattacks
  • 1 day Mexico Says OPEC Has Not Approached It For Deal Extension
  • 1 day New Video Game Targets Oil Infrastructure
  • 2 days Shell Restarts Bonny Light Exports
  • 2 days Russia’s Rosneft To Take Majority In Kurdish Oil Pipeline
  • 2 days Iraq Struggles To Replace Damaged Kirkuk Equipment As Output Falls
  • 2 days British Utility Companies Brace For Major Reforms
  • 2 days Montenegro A ‘Sweet Spot’ Of Untapped Oil, Gas In The Adriatic
  • 2 days Rosneft CEO: Rising U.S. Shale A Downside Risk To Oil Prices
  • 2 days Brazil Could Invite More Bids For Unsold Pre-Salt Oil Blocks
  • 2 days OPEC/Non-OPEC Seek Consensus On Deal Before Nov Summit
  • 2 days London Stock Exchange Boss Defends Push To Win Aramco IPO
  • 2 days Rosneft Signs $400M Deal With Kurdistan
  • 3 days Kinder Morgan Warns About Trans Mountain Delays
  • 3 days India, China, U.S., Complain Of Venezuelan Crude Oil Quality Issues
  • 3 days Kurdish Kirkuk-Ceyhan Crude Oil Flows Plunge To 225,000 Bpd
  • 3 days Russia, Saudis Team Up To Boost Fracking Tech
  • 3 days Conflicting News Spurs Doubt On Aramco IPO
  • 4 days Exxon Starts Production At New Refinery In Texas
  • 4 days Iraq Asks BP To Redevelop Kirkuk Oil Fields
  • 4 days Oil Prices Rise After U.S. API Reports Strong Crude Inventory Draw
  • 4 days Oil Gains Spur Growth In Canada’s Oil Cities
  • 4 days China To Take 5% Of Rosneft’s Output In New Deal
  • 4 days UAE Oil Giant Seeks Partnership For Possible IPO
  • 4 days Planting Trees Could Cut Emissions As Much As Quitting Oil
  • 4 days VW Fails To Secure Critical Commodity For EVs
  • 4 days Enbridge Pipeline Expansion Finally Approved
  • 5 days Iraqi Forces Seize Control Of North Oil Co Fields In Kirkuk
  • 5 days OPEC Oil Deal Compliance Falls To 86%
  • 5 days U.S. Oil Production To Increase in November As Rig Count Falls
  • 5 days Gazprom Neft Unhappy With OPEC-Russia Production Cut Deal
  • 5 days Disputed Venezuelan Vote Could Lead To More Sanctions, Clashes
  • 5 days EU Urges U.S. Congress To Protect Iran Nuclear Deal
  • 6 days Oil Rig Explosion In Louisiana Leaves 7 Injured, 1 Still Missing
  • 6 days Aramco Says No Plans To Shelve IPO
Finally: A Way To Invest In Blockchain

Finally: A Way To Invest In Blockchain

Cryptocurrencies and the blockchain are…

Are Oil Markets Becoming Immune To Geopolitical Risk?

Are Oil Markets Becoming Immune To Geopolitical Risk?

The geopolitical risk premium in…

Russia’s Central Bank Sticks To Oil Price Forecasts

Putin Niabullina

The central bank of Russia has no plans to revise its current oil price estimates for the next 12 months despite the OPEC deal that saw international oil benchmarks pass the US$50 barrier and stay above it for a week now.

Speaking at an investor conference in London, the bank’s deputy governor Ksenia Yudayeva acknowledged that prices could go further up as a result of the international agreement, but also noted that there was significant downward risk, although she did not elaborate.

Some, like Lukoil’s Vice President Leonid Fedun, are more optimistic. Fedun told media that crude oil prices could reach US$60 a barrel in 2017, based on “the history of such operations.”

The central bank’s oil-price scenario for the medium term, not just for 2017, is for US$40 a barrel. At the same time, there is a second scenario envisaging average international prices of US$55 a barrel.

Last month, Yudayeva’s boss, governor Elvira Nabiullina, said that Russia was planning to start shifting its economic model away from the overreliance on mineral resource exports. The transition, Nabiullina admitted, will take a while and will not be a smooth process, but as soon as next year, Russia may register GDP growth, albeit at a modest rate of less than 2 percent.

The shift could take even longer if prices stay where they now, as, according to one economist from Russian banking group Alfa, every US$1 above US$40 translates into around US$2 billion in budget revenues. The 2017 budget, currently discussed by the government, has set the average international oil price at US$40 a barrel.

OPEC agreed last week to cut overall production by 1.2 million barrels per day, with Saudi Arabia shouldering almost half of the cut, and Russia agreeing to reduce its own output by 300,000 bpd, “gradually”. The gradual reduction will at some point coincide with a habitual seasonal production cut of around 150,000 bpd in the spring.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:



Join the discussion | Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment

Oilprice - The No. 1 Source for Oil & Energy News