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OPEC Sees Smaller Oil Supply Surplus For Q1 2022

OPEC’s Joint Technical Committee has revised its estimates for Q1 supply and demand. In the Committee’s estimation, the supply surplus has shrunk to 600,000 bpd, versus its previous estimate of 1 million bpd.

OPEC’s Joint Technical Committee met on Wednesday to review oil market developments ahead of the OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on Thursday.

OPEC Secretary General HE Mohammad Barkindo encouraged its members “to stay the course” when it comes to the group’s decision tomrorow, according to an OPEC statement cited by Reuters.

This is the most recent signal to the oil markets that tomorrow’s OPEC+ meeting is likely to be short and uneventful, resulting in no changes to the group’s production plans for May.

The current plan is for OPEC+ to add 432,000 bpd to the group’s overall production quota, despite calls on the group to boost its production more significantly.

The World Bank said on Wednesday that Gulf oil producers could play a critical role in squelching oil and gas price volatility in the coming months.

“We are witnessing a massive restructuring of the global oil and gas market, where the supply flexibility of the GCC will be critical in dampening volatility in coming months,” David Malpass said in a speech telecast at the World Government Summit in Dubai, according to Reuters.

Gulf producers Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait are all GCC and OPEC members.

But OPEC+’s challenges remain. While OPEC+ has raised its target production level every month since last August, it has been unable to hit its new monthly targets, leaving the market to worry whether OPEC+ has the capacity to meet the current market demands.

PetroLogistics said on Wednesday that OPEC’s crude oil exports actually fell during the first 27 days of March, averaging just 21.421 million barrels per day—down 363,000 bpd versus the full month of February, despite OPEC’s increased quotas.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

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