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New Mexico Will Overtake Mexico’s Crude Oil Output This Month

New Mexico is set to overtake Mexico’s crude oil production in the current month. That’s what commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have projected in a new report obtained by Oilprice.com, with New Mexico’s production in September just 74,000 barrels per day less than Mexico’s.

The surge in New Mexico’s output is centered on two counties, Lea and Eddy, where 16 percent of active U.S. oil rigs are currently employed. Rising New Mexico output is one reason why we do not share concerns that the U.S. is past its peak; we expect crude oil output to reach a new all-time high in June 2023,” StanChart says in the report.

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The experts have forecast that U.S. crude oil output will hit an all-time high in June 2023, noting that total U.S. oil liquids output (including biofuels and natural gas liquids, NGLs) has already fully recovered after crashing during the pandemic. 

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Total US oil liquids output in September clocked in at 19.502mb/d, surpassing the previous all-time high (January 2020) by 265kb/d. A strong base effect (due to hurricane activity in September 2021) accelerated September y/y growth to 1.35mb/d for crude oil and 1.919mb/d for total oil liquids. StanChart says the annual growth numbers will be more modest, and has forecast y/y growth in U.S. supply in 2022 to come in at 663kb/d for crude oil and 1.191mb/d for total oil liquids.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently did an about-face, raising its forecast for oil production next year to reach 12.34M bbl/day next year, breaking the record 12.31M bbl/day set in 2019. Last month, in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA revised its 2023 production outlook lower by 21kb/d to 12.31mb/d and 2023 growth lower by 121kb/d to 487kb/d.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

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