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Global Temperatures Have Been Falling Since 1999

Natural climate cycles have changed from their warming phase to cooling phase, and this means that contrary to popular belief the global temperature has been declining for more than 10 years, and will continue to decline for another 20 or so.

This evidence was presented last week at the seventh International Climate Change Conference sponsored by the Heartland Institute. Several prominent natural scientists provided serious and credible evidence in calm, dispassionate presentations, based on reams of factual data. In sharp contrast to the manner of these presentations, climate alarmists have been unable to provide sufficient data to defend their claims that humans are causing catastrophic global warming.

A look at the temperature record throughout the 20th century shows that the up and down pattern does not follow the rise of the industrial revolution and the resulting increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide, but instead follows the pattern of naturally caused climate cycles.

Between the 1940s and the 1970s the climate cycle was in a cooling phase, and the global temperatures steadily dropped, with the press hailing the approach of a new ice age. Then in the late 1970s the climate cycle switched to its warming phase which continued until the 1990s.

The main contributor to these natural cycles is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) which undergoes a 25 – 30 year cycle where cold water from the depths rises up to replace the warmer water at the surface. This change is enough to affect the global temperatures by the few degrees that we are witnessing. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also affects the global temperatures in a similar fashion.

In the period between the 1940s and 1970s both the PDO and AMO were in a cold phase, and then between the 1970s and the 1990s they were in a warm phase, explaining the patterns of the changes in global temperature.

Back in 2000 the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted that global temperatures could rise by an average of 1 degree Celsius by 2010. Don Easterbrook, the Professor Emeritus of Geology at Western Washington University, predicted that global temperatures would actually decline by 2010, based on his knowledge of the PDO and that it had change to a cooling phase in 1999.

Eastbrook was one of the speakers at the Heartland conference last week where he provided evidence which proved his prediction correct, that global temperatures have actually declined over the last decade. The IPCC’s prediction was out by well over a degree, a huge gap for a 10 year forecast when we are meant to trust their 100 year predictions.


The PDO cycle last for about 25 – 30 years and therefore Eastbrook has stated that the current cooling pattern will continue for another two decades, and at a faster rate as he expects the AMO to switch to a cooling period soon.

By. James Burgess of Oilprice.com

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Leave a comment
  • Leslie Graham on June 08 2012 said:
    ".....There you go with that "ever" word. Can you quote the measurements from say, the Roman Climatic Optimum, or the Mediaeval Warm Period, or go back to when the Arctic was ice free, or when Greenland was covered in vegetation rather than ice? ..."

    We have accurate measurements for CO2 levels going back millions of years. That you seem blissfully unaware of such basic information and yet presume to pontificate on matters of climate is telling.
    And that ridiculous and absurd "Greenland used to be green" denilaist meme is simply embarrasing. Greenland is covered in ice over a mile thick and has been for at least 25 million years.
    Why don't you read some basic history about Eric The Red and why he named Greenland so.
    This article is simply a shocker - any publication that still contuinues to quote this fossil-fuel funded 'thinktank' after all the recent revelations about their funding, blatant lies and calling scientists "mass murderers, serial killers and terrorists" is nailing it's colours firmly to the mast of denialism. Hopefully your actions will one day have consequences and you will be held to account for this level of blatant propaganda.
    In the meantime - shame on you.
  • Richard Audet on June 05 2012 said:
    Harbinger claims the temperatures in the past ten years in Fairbanks have declined. This is true, (despite a crash in winter temperatures). But when discussing global climate you need to look at GLOBAL climate. For a nonpartisan study of global climate data go to the Berkely Earth Surface Temperature study. This study was headed by an ex-climate change skeptic. It backs up the claims of a 1 degree celsius rise over the past 30 years.
  • Mel Tisdale on June 05 2012 said:
    If you are going to pass yourself off as a reputable source of information, you really have to investigate where you get your information from. The Heartland Institute is infamous for climate denial. That fact alone should have led you to investigate their claims before repeating them parrot fashion.

    The only reason that we have not had another record-breaking year recently - though 2005 equalled the record - is because we have experienced a series of La Niña events. In the meantime, the heat has been going into the oceans, as their temperature records show. Come the next El Niño, and come it must, that heat will be released and if it is anything like as powerful as the 1998 El Niño, we are in for a very bad time of it. Just look at the temperature graphs and ask yourself how on earth the temperature could suddenly reverse such a well established trend.

    That the Heartland Institute would rather support the fossil fuel industry than the population is between them and their conscience. That you clearly have not investigated this issue in the depth necessary to produce an article worthy of putting into print is between you and your conscience. I recommend spending some time perusing the skepticalscience.com website. You will then find out just how poor the above article is.

    I reinforce the above by asking why it is that 97% of the world's leading climate scientists are in agreement that the planet is warming and that we as a species are to blame, yet an institute funded by the fossil fuel industry disagrees.

    There will come a day of reckoning on this issue. That day is not far off and I recommend that you choose which side you should be on. If not for your sakes so much, but for the sake of your children and grandchildren, who as things stand are in for a dire existence.
  • harbinger on June 05 2012 said:
    "Six Arctic stations reported CO2 measurements above 400 ppm last month for the first time - ever."

    There you go with that "ever" word. Can you quote the measurements from say, the Roman Climatic Optimum, or the Mediaeval Warm Period, or go back to when the Arctic was ice free, or when Greenland was covered in vegetation rather than ice? Do you have the temperature record for the last 8000 years? The Alaska Research Center says of Fairbanks, reasonably typical for the region, that:
    "Related to the temperature, the warmest year was 2002 with a mean temperature of 30.3°F, the 7th warmest in our records of more than a century. Higher temperatures were observed during the following years in order of decreasing values: 1926. 1987, 1928, 1993, 1940, and 1981."

    "While the overall trend since 1906 shows warming, the best linear fit of the data points of the last decade displays a fairly strong cooling of 1.78°F. Recent cooling has also been observed in other parts of the world, and some climatologists have attributed this trend to the low solar activity we have experienced over the last few years."

    "In 1976/77 a sudden and substantial temperature increase was observed in Alaska, which we attributed to a change in circulation, which is expressed in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The PDO shifted from dominantly negative to dominantly positive values. Since that change, the temperature trend has been fairly flat for Fairbanks."

    The fact that 400 ppm was measured should mean that temperatures would be a lot warmer now if the theory were correct and they aren't, so the measurement is irrelevant, CO2 isn't driving temperatures upwards.
  • Samuel on June 04 2012 said:
    The scientist you were referring to is named Easterbrook, not Eastbrook. His recent talk at the 7th ICCC is repeated at the Heartland website.

  • EcoNomist on June 03 2012 said:
    Heartland is in the business of selling denial. They are funded by oil companies to fabricate their own truth on the basis of misinformation.

    Half their funding has been lost, and their denial conference collapsed in failure is what is reported.

    This is a fringe story for people in the oil business to hear news the public is being fooled, not true.

    Six Arctic stations reported CO2 measurements above 400 ppm last month for the first time - ever.

    They also report historic high temperatures in 6 of the past 10 years for the past 8,000 years.

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