 |
Louisiana Light • 4 days | 91.40 | +0.24 | +0.26% | ||
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Bonny Light • 4 days | 95.60 | -0.40 | -0.42% | ||
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Opec Basket • 4 days | 95.73 | +0.72 | +0.76% | ||
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Mars US • 11 mins | 88.38 | -0.35 | -0.39% | ||
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Gasoline • 10 mins | 2.537 | -0.025 | -0.98% |
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Bonny Light • 4 days | 95.60 | -0.40 | -0.42% | ||
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Girassol • 4 days | 96.55 | -0.49 | -0.50% | ||
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Opec Basket • 4 days | 95.73 | +0.72 | +0.76% |
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Peace Sour • 15 hours | 84.53 | +0.40 | +0.48% | ||
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Light Sour Blend • 15 hours | 85.03 | +0.40 | +0.47% | ||
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Syncrude Sweet Premium • 15 hours | 93.63 | +0.40 | +0.43% | ||
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Central Alberta • 15 hours | 84.53 | +0.40 | +0.48% |
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Eagle Ford • 4 days | 86.51 | +0.40 | +0.46% | ||
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Oklahoma Sweet • 4 days | 86.50 | +0.50 | +0.58% | ||
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Kansas Common • 4 days | 80.25 | +0.25 | +0.31% | ||
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Buena Vista • 5 days | 95.08 | -0.15 | -0.16% |
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Geopolitical Peak Oil: Has Unconventional Oil Production Peaked?
Peak oil is a myth; at least the chance of achieving peak oil any time soon is. It has been well documented that we have vast reserves of hydrocarbons buried beneath the Earth’s surface; huge shale formations, the vast oil fields in Brazil and South America, oil in the Arctic, etc. However maybe we should not throw away the term peak oil just yet, because now it seems as though we could reach peak oil in a geopolitical sense.
Shell offers a prime example where abundant oil reserves are proving far more difficult to develop than previously thought due to troublesome regulations and politics. Back in 2008 Shell paid $2 billion for permits to drill in the Arctic waters off the North Slope of Alaska, and since then it has spent another $5 billion trying to prepare everything for its exploration and drilling campaign. Yet after all that time, and all that money it has still not completed even one well; and it is no secret that they have started to have second thoughts about their entire Arctic adventure.
The truth is that most of the world’s largest unconventional plays are to be found in politically volatile markets. The US is just one example. Following the BP Gulf of Mexico Spill major international oil companies are now very wary of working in US waters, because any accident, no matter how faultless could well prove the end of the company involved.
To find out more on this topic please read a very detailed and interesting article by Matthew Hulbert on Forbes
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Treating all potential oil reserves as having equal flow-rates is a lie. It's like looking at a dry riverbed and claiming that it holds just as much water as a full river. In the real world, the river's flow peaked when it was full of water in rainy times. And water is mostly renewable. When oil wells peak, they rarely peak twice and can't be replenished by clouds, Jesus or abiotic pipe dreams.
It turns out that as time goes on recovering those vast reserves becomes more difficult to pinpoint, and more importantly, much more expensive to recover. You are after sucking oil out of rock. Try it sometime.
The alternative? Drive an EV. EVs can be powered with renewable energy which has the added benefit of a lot less air pollution.
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It seems reasonable then to assume that non-conventional oil production will also peak in the near-future. Non-conventional oil, by it's very nature is more difficult and expensive to extract, and is thus also extracted in lower volumes than conventional oil.
The distinction of whether peak unconventional oil will be caused by simple economic and physical realities, or "political" influences, is ultimately an utterly mute point.
After all, peak oil (and all its consequences) is still one of the greatest challenges mankind faces, and pointing the finger of blame is a time-wasting distraction.
Except for those who benefit from “wasting time” on this issue.
From that moment on, the house of cards that we call western civilisation with an economy based on consumption of finite resources in general, and oil in particular, will come crashing down.
/Mats Lindqvist/ASPO Sweden/