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EIA Sees The U.S. Becoming Net Oil Exporter In Q4 2020

oil well

Continuously rising U.S. shale production will make the United States a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products in the fourth quarter of 2020, the EIA said in its January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), which offered a first glimpse into the administration’s forecasts for 2020.

The EIA has estimated that U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.9 million bpd in 2018, rising by 1.6 million bpd from 2017 and reaching its highest level and seeing its largest volume growth on record. This year, America’s crude oil production is expected to average 12.1 million bpd in 2019, while crude production in 2020 is seen averaging 12.9 million bpd, with most of the growth coming from the Permian.

“If the domestic and global forecasts are realized, crude oil production at these levels would allow the United States to maintain its status as the world’s leading crude oil producer in both years,” the EIA said.

Thanks to the booming domestic production, the U.S. net imports of crude oil and petroleum products have been diminishing in recent years. This doesn’t mean that the U.S. is not importing large volumes of crude and petroleum products; rather, it means that exports of crude oil and oil products are continuously rising.

Related: Trump Takes Aim At Maduro, Threatens Oil Embargo

In the week to November 30, 2018, the U.S. exported more crude oil and petroleum products than it imported for the first time in weekly data going back to 1991, the EIA has estimated.

“However, the United States still imports more crude oil than it exports: in September 2018, the most recent monthly data, the United States imported 7.6 million b/d and exported 2.1 million b/d. U.S. exports of petroleum products have continued to increase, and in 2017, the United States was a net exporter of several petroleum products such as motor gasoline, distillate, hydrocarbon gas liquids, and jet fuel,” according to the EIA.

Last year, U.S. net imports of crude oil and petroleum product are estimated to have dropped to an average of 2.4 million bpd, from an average of 3.8 million bpd in 2017. Net imports are expected to continue to fall, to an average of 1.1 million bpd this year, and to less than 100,000 bpd in 2020. In the fourth quarter of 2020, the EIA forecasts the United States will be a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products, by about 900,000 bpd.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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  • Mamdouh Salameh on January 17 2019 said:
    According to the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) own figures, US crude oil production and consumption in 2018 averaged 20.5 million barrels a day (mbd) and 10.9 mbd respectively thus necessitating importing 9.6 mbd last year.

    These are clear-cut figures and no amount of twisting and turning can change the reality that US oil imports would have amounted to 9.6 mbd in 2018.

    Now the EIA is projecting that US production in 2019 and 2020 will average 12.1 mbd and 12.9 mbd respectively. We can also safely project that US consumption of crude oil will grow at an annual rate of 1.621% from 20.5 mbd in 2018 to 20.83 mbd in 2019 and 21.17 mbd according to figures from the 2018 BP Statistical Review of World Energy. This means that the US will have to import 8.73 mbd and 8.27 mbd in 2019 and 2020 respectively.

    And no matter what volumes of crude oil and refined products the US exports in both 2019 and 2020, it will still have to import equivalent quantities of medium and heavy crude oil for use by its refineries which are tooled to use such crudes. This means that US crude oi imports in both 2019 and 2020 will still amount to 8.73 mbd and 8.27 mbd respectively.

    Therefore, the claim by the EIA that continuously rising US shale production will make the United States a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products in the fourth quarter of 2020 is not only false but a great hype.

    Moreover all through 2018 the EIA has been telling us that US oil production will average 11.70 mbd. Now it is saying that it has averaged 10.9 mbd. Therefore, the projection that US production will average 12.1 mbd in 2019 and 12.9 mbd in 2020 is mere hype exactly like the claim that the US will become a net oil exporter in the fourth quarter of 2020.

    Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
    International Oil Economist
    Visiting Professor of Energy Economics at ESCP Europe Business School, London
  • Mamdouh Salameh on January 17 2019 said:
    According to the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) own figures, US crude oil production and consumption in 2018 averaged 20.5 million barrels a day (mbd) and 10.9 mbd respectively thus necessitating importing 9.6 mbd last year.

    These are clear-cut figures and no amount of twisting and turning can change the reality that US oil imports would have amounted to 9.6 mbd in 2018.

    Now the EIA is projecting that US production in 2019 and 2020 will average 12.1 mbd and 12.9 mbd respectively. We can also safely project that US consumption of crude oil will grow at an annual rate of 1.621% from 20.5 mbd in 2018 to 20.83 mbd in 2019 and 21.17 mbd according to figures from the 2018 BP Statistical Review of World Energy. This means that the US will have to import 8.73 mbd and 8.27 mbd in 2019 and 2020 respectively.

    And no matter what volumes of crude oil and refined products the US exports in both 2019 and 2020, it will still have to import equivalent quantities of medium and heavy crude oil for use by its refineries which are tooled to use such crudes. This means that US crude oi imports in both 2019 and 2020 will still amount to 8.73 mbd and 8.27 mbd respectively.

    Therefore, the claim by the EIA that continuously rising US shale production will make the United States a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products in the fourth quarter of 2020 is not only false but a great hype.

    Moreover all through 2018 the EIA has been telling us that US oil production will average 11.70 mbd. Now it is saying that it has averaged 10.9 mbd. Therefore, the projection that US production will average 12.1 mbd in 2019 and 12.9 mbd in 2020 is mere hype exactly like the claim that the US will become a net oil exporter in the fourth quarter of 2020.

    Dr Mamdouh G Salameh
    International Oil Economist
    Visiting Professor of Energy Economics at ESCP Europe Business School, London
  • J P on January 17 2019 said:
    I guess the good analysts are on furrlough during the shutdown. That estimate is preposterous.

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