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The Brent crude oil spot price will average $83 per barrel next year, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its monthly Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) published on Tuesday.
In last month’s STEO, the EIA had forecast 2024 forecast for the Brent crude oil benchmark at $93 per barrel. For the first half of next year, the EIA sees Brent averaging $84 per barrel.
While this is a decrease from the crude oil forecast it published last month, the forecast price is still up from an average of $78 per barrel in December. The EIA attributed the decrease to “ongoing concerns around global oil demand growth.”
The EIA added that growth in global crude oil supply had been limited this year because of voluntary OPEC production cuts. “We estimate countries within the OPEC+ agreement have lowered crude oil production by 1.4 million b/d in 2023,” the EIA said, partially offsetting production growth of 2.4 million bpd by non-OPEC+ producers. The EIA estimates that OPEC+ crude production will fall by another 600,000 bpd next year.
U.S. crude oil and petroleum products exports will reach a high next year of nearly 2.0 million bpd, the EIA also said. That’s an increase from 1.8 million bpd in 2023 and a large increase from the 1.2 million bpd exported in 2022. The growth is “primarily driven by an increase in U.S. crude oil and hydrocarbon gas liquids production,” the report said.
The EIA also lowered its Henry Hub spot price forecast to $2.79 per million British thermal units this winter—that’s down 60 cents from the November STEO as the warmer start to this winter crimps demand.
Crude oil prices fell sharply on Tuesday, with WTI and Brent both falling more than 4% as the consumer price index showed a 3.1% increase from November 2022 to November 2023.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
Julianne Geiger is a veteran editor, writer and researcher for Oilprice.com, and a member of the Creative Professionals Networking Group.